Post by WigNosy on Jan 13, 2015 18:21:42 GMT -6
The trade deadline and all-star break are behind us, and teams are now jockeying for position in the final month of the season. Here is how one cat sees the playoff race shaping up.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The Nets and Bucks are going to battle down the stretch for the #1 seed in the East. The have two head-to-head matchups remaining and if one team can sweep those two games, I think that team has the inside track to the #1 seed, since neither team has an obviously favorable schedule. The Bucks' need to shut down Big Z for most of the rest of the regular season due to injury almost certainly hands the Nets the #1 overall seed and makes them the favorites to advance out of the Eastern Conference this year.
The Magic look to have a pretty solid hold on the #3 seed.
The Heat and Cavaliers have been struggling to find themselves all season and continue to fight over the #4 and #5 seeds. The Cavaliers are about to play a ridiculous stretch of 8 out of 9 games on the road, however, which I think will give the Heat just enough of an opening to claim the 4 seed. I think a Heat-Cavs matchup in round 1 is all but guaranteed, the question is simply who will have homecourt.
The Raptors currently own the #6 seed, but their final quarter-of-the-season schedule is brutal, with games at Warriors, at Bucks, at Magic, and at Mavericks as well as home dates with the Nets, Spurs, Heat, and Timberwolves. They weathered an early injury to star Michael Finley and have enough of a lead in the loss column over the 7-seed Hawks that they'll probably hold on to the #6 spot, but it's going to be tough sledding north of the border. The Hawks have survived a rash of injuries to their forwards this season and hold the #7 spot. Finally healthy for the first time since a 7-1 opening sim, and with a a home-heavy closing schedule, the only acceptable excuse should they fall out of the playoffs would be even more injuries. They might be able to catch the Raptors for the 6 seed, but the 7 seed is more realistic.
It gets interesting at the very bottom of the East. The Pacers, Knicks, and Pistons have taken turns over the last couple of sims holding the lead for the #8 seed and are all within 1.5 games of each other. The Pacers may have the lead now, but face 9 games on the road and only 6 at home... and with the likes of the Kings (twice), Nets (twice), and Bucks on the schedule, I don't think they cna hold on. The Pistons have a slightly lighter schedule and will hope Steve Smith can drag them to enough wins to qualify for the playoffs. However, I think the Knicks have the easiest road into the 8 seed, with only three of their fifteen remaining games scheduled against opponents that are currently over .500. Heck, even the 76ers should have a shot with 11 of their final 16 games at home... except the 76ers are 9-21 at HOME this season, so I'm not sure how much that helps them. You have to wonder, though, if any of these teams will look at the talent available in the draft and attempt a stealth tank.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Timberwolves are rolling and might even clinch the #1 overall seed in the playoffs around April 1st. They're locked into the #1 seed out West barring the team plane getting hit by lightning. The Divac acquisition, which allowed Webber and Hill to move down to their natural PF and SF positions (instead of trying to play at C and PF respectively) was an overlooked master stroke. The road to the title will go through Minnesota this year.
The Warriors and Kings continue to dogfight all the way to the final horn; both will be fighting for the Pacific crown and the #2 overall seed. With the Hardaway injury, the Mavs have fallen off the pace enough that the consolation prize will likely be the #3 seed. You know the Kings would love to get homecourt as the Warriors have been all but impregnable at home. The Warriors, though, have dealt with nagging injuries this season; now that they're healthy, I give them the edge to win the division over the Kings.
As discussed earlier, the Mavericks have fallen off the pace a bit with the Penny injury, but they won't fall farther than 4. Whichever member of the Pacific doesn't win the division crown will find themselves locked in a duel with the Mavs to get on the opposite side of the bracket from the Timberwolves.
The Clippers and Nuggets are faced with the option of trying to go through the Midwest in the playoffs if they grab the #5 seed and going through the Pacific if they can't and get the #6 seed. The Clippers have been performing nicely all year but lack dominating big men, so they would really much rather face off with the Mavericks and their guard-oriented squad than with the Warriors or the Kings, both of which boast powerful frontcourt players. Since the Nuggets shipped off some of their talent near the deadline, I give the edge to the Clippers to get the #5 seed. This would set up David Robinson, who still strikes fear into the hearts of playoff GMs, to lead the Nuggets against a young up-and-coming big in the person of either Camby or C-Webb.
Like the East, the real intrigue comes in at the bottom of the West. Unlike the East, there's little incentive to try a stealth tank here; the team that falls out of the playoffs is more or less locked into the #13 draft spot and the talent there is going to be slim at best. The Spurs, Suns, and Jazz will be duking it out for the final two Western playoff spots (Seattle might have had a dark horse shot until Doug Christie went down). All three teams probably represent the up-and-comers in the West. The Jazz have three young thoroughbreds with Duncan, Marbury, and Wells, but Karl Malone's contract can't come off the books soon enough. The Jazz are still very Duncan-dependent; when he has a bad game, the team has a bad game. The Spurs are a flashy, offensively talented bunch that plays no defense but can still outscore teams more often than not. The core of Abdur-Rahim, Allen, and Robinson will be here next year, but the Spurs probably can't afford to bring back their three big free agents in Davis, Wallace, and Stoudamire... so you have to wonder, is this their best shot before they start losing depth? The Suns... are also a young, flashy, offensively talented bunch that plays no defense at all (well, maybe an aging Brad Daugherty does but their young core of Van Horn, Iverson, and O'Neal aren't scaring anyone with their defense yet) but can still outscore teams more often then not. This one probably comes down to schedule; the Spurs have just 5 games left against winning teams, and 2 of those 5 come against the Suns. Similarly, the Suns have 6 games left against winning teams (with the aforementioned 2 against the Spurs); however, their schedule is pretty road-heavy. The Jazz have 9 games against winning teams and a slightly home-tilted schedule. If I had to handicap it, I'd guess Spurs finish in 7th by virtue of an easy home schedule without a ton of road games, the Suns finish 8th despite a road heavy schedule because it's also a weak schedule... and the Jazz, with a pretty tough schedule to deal with (two games each against the Warriors and Timberwolves as well as a date with the Kings) I think probably come up short and finish out of the playoffs by a game or two, though injury at this point to any of the three teams could doom them.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The Nets and Bucks are going to battle down the stretch for the #1 seed in the East. The have two head-to-head matchups remaining and if one team can sweep those two games, I think that team has the inside track to the #1 seed, since neither team has an obviously favorable schedule. The Bucks' need to shut down Big Z for most of the rest of the regular season due to injury almost certainly hands the Nets the #1 overall seed and makes them the favorites to advance out of the Eastern Conference this year.
The Magic look to have a pretty solid hold on the #3 seed.
The Heat and Cavaliers have been struggling to find themselves all season and continue to fight over the #4 and #5 seeds. The Cavaliers are about to play a ridiculous stretch of 8 out of 9 games on the road, however, which I think will give the Heat just enough of an opening to claim the 4 seed. I think a Heat-Cavs matchup in round 1 is all but guaranteed, the question is simply who will have homecourt.
The Raptors currently own the #6 seed, but their final quarter-of-the-season schedule is brutal, with games at Warriors, at Bucks, at Magic, and at Mavericks as well as home dates with the Nets, Spurs, Heat, and Timberwolves. They weathered an early injury to star Michael Finley and have enough of a lead in the loss column over the 7-seed Hawks that they'll probably hold on to the #6 spot, but it's going to be tough sledding north of the border. The Hawks have survived a rash of injuries to their forwards this season and hold the #7 spot. Finally healthy for the first time since a 7-1 opening sim, and with a a home-heavy closing schedule, the only acceptable excuse should they fall out of the playoffs would be even more injuries. They might be able to catch the Raptors for the 6 seed, but the 7 seed is more realistic.
It gets interesting at the very bottom of the East. The Pacers, Knicks, and Pistons have taken turns over the last couple of sims holding the lead for the #8 seed and are all within 1.5 games of each other. The Pacers may have the lead now, but face 9 games on the road and only 6 at home... and with the likes of the Kings (twice), Nets (twice), and Bucks on the schedule, I don't think they cna hold on. The Pistons have a slightly lighter schedule and will hope Steve Smith can drag them to enough wins to qualify for the playoffs. However, I think the Knicks have the easiest road into the 8 seed, with only three of their fifteen remaining games scheduled against opponents that are currently over .500. Heck, even the 76ers should have a shot with 11 of their final 16 games at home... except the 76ers are 9-21 at HOME this season, so I'm not sure how much that helps them. You have to wonder, though, if any of these teams will look at the talent available in the draft and attempt a stealth tank.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Timberwolves are rolling and might even clinch the #1 overall seed in the playoffs around April 1st. They're locked into the #1 seed out West barring the team plane getting hit by lightning. The Divac acquisition, which allowed Webber and Hill to move down to their natural PF and SF positions (instead of trying to play at C and PF respectively) was an overlooked master stroke. The road to the title will go through Minnesota this year.
The Warriors and Kings continue to dogfight all the way to the final horn; both will be fighting for the Pacific crown and the #2 overall seed. With the Hardaway injury, the Mavs have fallen off the pace enough that the consolation prize will likely be the #3 seed. You know the Kings would love to get homecourt as the Warriors have been all but impregnable at home. The Warriors, though, have dealt with nagging injuries this season; now that they're healthy, I give them the edge to win the division over the Kings.
As discussed earlier, the Mavericks have fallen off the pace a bit with the Penny injury, but they won't fall farther than 4. Whichever member of the Pacific doesn't win the division crown will find themselves locked in a duel with the Mavs to get on the opposite side of the bracket from the Timberwolves.
The Clippers and Nuggets are faced with the option of trying to go through the Midwest in the playoffs if they grab the #5 seed and going through the Pacific if they can't and get the #6 seed. The Clippers have been performing nicely all year but lack dominating big men, so they would really much rather face off with the Mavericks and their guard-oriented squad than with the Warriors or the Kings, both of which boast powerful frontcourt players. Since the Nuggets shipped off some of their talent near the deadline, I give the edge to the Clippers to get the #5 seed. This would set up David Robinson, who still strikes fear into the hearts of playoff GMs, to lead the Nuggets against a young up-and-coming big in the person of either Camby or C-Webb.
Like the East, the real intrigue comes in at the bottom of the West. Unlike the East, there's little incentive to try a stealth tank here; the team that falls out of the playoffs is more or less locked into the #13 draft spot and the talent there is going to be slim at best. The Spurs, Suns, and Jazz will be duking it out for the final two Western playoff spots (Seattle might have had a dark horse shot until Doug Christie went down). All three teams probably represent the up-and-comers in the West. The Jazz have three young thoroughbreds with Duncan, Marbury, and Wells, but Karl Malone's contract can't come off the books soon enough. The Jazz are still very Duncan-dependent; when he has a bad game, the team has a bad game. The Spurs are a flashy, offensively talented bunch that plays no defense but can still outscore teams more often than not. The core of Abdur-Rahim, Allen, and Robinson will be here next year, but the Spurs probably can't afford to bring back their three big free agents in Davis, Wallace, and Stoudamire... so you have to wonder, is this their best shot before they start losing depth? The Suns... are also a young, flashy, offensively talented bunch that plays no defense at all (well, maybe an aging Brad Daugherty does but their young core of Van Horn, Iverson, and O'Neal aren't scaring anyone with their defense yet) but can still outscore teams more often then not. This one probably comes down to schedule; the Spurs have just 5 games left against winning teams, and 2 of those 5 come against the Suns. Similarly, the Suns have 6 games left against winning teams (with the aforementioned 2 against the Spurs); however, their schedule is pretty road-heavy. The Jazz have 9 games against winning teams and a slightly home-tilted schedule. If I had to handicap it, I'd guess Spurs finish in 7th by virtue of an easy home schedule without a ton of road games, the Suns finish 8th despite a road heavy schedule because it's also a weak schedule... and the Jazz, with a pretty tough schedule to deal with (two games each against the Warriors and Timberwolves as well as a date with the Kings) I think probably come up short and finish out of the playoffs by a game or two, though injury at this point to any of the three teams could doom them.
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