Post by WigNosy on Dec 22, 2014 20:03:05 GMT -6
Division by division, in expected order of finish. Usual disclaimer about "injuries could affect this" applies. Wanted to get this done before Regular Season Sim 1.
ATLANTIC - CONTENDERS
Nets - No other team in the Atlantic can match the firepower of Gugliotta, Walker, and Rider. Their offensive core is in their prime and they have surrounded them with a talented crew of veterans like Jackson, Richardson, and Seikaly. Now that the Celtics have broken it up the Nets should be one of three teams fighting for the division crown. I give the Nets the nod because, as a veteran squad, they have the incentive to make moves to win sooner rather than later - the future in New Jersey is now.
Heat - With one of the best groups of perimeter players in the league, the Heat rely on Jackson, Payton, and Mayes to set the tone offensively and defensively. Their interior, unfortunately, is a bit suspect, with Robinson a guy who shies away from contact and Keefe a battler, but undersized upfront. If the Heat can find a way to bring in some interior beef without giving up too much on the perimeter, they might have the inside track on the division crown. Until they actually go get that added size, though, I can't rank them higher. Like the Nets, the Heat are kind of heavy on veterans, so I expect they will try to make moves to go after the title this season.
Magic - A well-balanced starting five defensively, but a bit lacking in frontcourt firepower. This team will be a threat to win the Atlantic regular season crown, but, like the Heat, will be hard-pressed to keep teams with a lot of bulk off the boards - and at some point in the postseason, they're going to run into such a team. Even though most of their squad is old (they're the oldest average age in the league), a couple of their key pieces (Kidd, Stack) are still pretty young, so the Magic may be a little more hesitant than the Nets or Heat to pull off a blockbuster trade that helps them win now at the expense of the future... and their bench outside of Ellis is a huge concern.
ATLANTIC - PRETENDERS
76ers - This team has a bunch of players that are a year away - Bobby Jackson and Raef LaFrentz are probably a year away from really being ready to start, and Rik Smits, Glen Rice, and even Anthony Peeler are probably a year removed from their primes. The Sixers don't have much off the bench and are probably going to have to consider rebuilding, as much of their offensive core is moving out of, not into, their primes. This observer thinks that with LaFrentz' three-pointing capability at center, it would be really interesting to see the Sixers embrace the three-point shot fully and start putting together a roster of young three-point bombers - one that resembles the Clippers teams of Cliff Robinson's heyday with Terry Mills. Not a contender this season, and will struggle even to get a playoff spot.
Knicks - The big problem here is most of their players are three or four years out of their primes now. This lineup would have been frightening in 1994 - but not any more. The Knicks will score a ton of points, but will give up a ton of points also. This is a team that should be in full rebuilding mode, trading off their veteran players to anyone who will take them. Will they go that route, though?
Celtics - Alonzo will be putting up truly ridiculous stats this season, as he no longer has to share the ball with Coleman, Hardaway, and Richmond, all of whom loved to shoot. The problem is that nobody else in Boston is worth a darn, and the Celtics' Green Reign of Terror over the East has clearly come to an end. Zo might have the best statistical season of his career, but this team will lose more games this year than they have in the past three or four years combined.
Wizards - Paid Juwan Howard a huge contract in RFA and let go of David Wesley to keep him. Howard, like Zo, will put up huge numbers on a team devoid of other scoring talent but the regression of Joe Smith in Training Camp and a series of strikeouts in Free Agency have put J2 into rebuild mode. Since he can't move Juwan by rule, you know Howard will stay at least for the season, but look for everyone else to be shopped extensively this season. The attempt to turn over the roster will make it difficult for this team to build any sort of cohesion.
CENTRAL - CONTENDERS
Bucks - Last season's division winners lost Brian Grant to free agency, but replaced him with former all star Derek Strong, who I think will make it so they don't miss Grant at all. This is an extremely deep squad with a bench that has guys like Fox (or Phills), Muresan, and Murdock who could probably start for a number of other teams. The core of the team is clearly Rose and Ilgauskas, and they have the veteran parts around those two to be the favorites to come out of the East now that Boston is rebuilding... and with Rose and Big Z still young, the Bucks may have to shuffle the supporting cast, but look to be good for a long time.
Cavs - Have the potential to make a huge leap this season. Acquiring Terry Mills and Jon Barry from the defending champion Mavs gives Steve Nash three terrific shooters to pick from in the starting lineup as they join Eddie Jones, and Elden Campbell is a defensive-minded center with enough offensive game to make teams pay attention. I think, though, that either Campbell or Jayson Williams will have to be moved for pennies on the dollar to avoid getting socked with a big luxury tax bill, and that loss of depth in the frontcourt will be just enough to cost them the division title to the Bucks. They look like potential contenders in the East, however.
Raptors - Will put a scare into a log of teams this season, as they are young and hungry. No rotation player over the age of 30, but could use an upgrade at SF and are probably a year away in at PF and C - I think Miller and Grant aren't quite championship-caliber bigs yet. Cassell will be sneaky good behind Billups and Tim Thomas might be asked to take on a bigger role behind Rodney Rogers this year. Probably hit their stride next season, but will win some games they shouldn't this year and if everything breaks their way, might find a way to push for the division crown.
Pistons - The Pistons have very talented wings and guards, but are somewhat lacking in the bulk department this season. If the Pistons can get a vintage defensive performance from any one of Hill, Benjamin, or Purdue, they'll be a threat to win most nights - but if they can't, they'll struggle. The Pistons' defense looks surprisingly adept and should be able to handle teams without great backcourt defense to slow down Steve Smith - but I think they'll drive Tray crazy by playing to the level of their competition most nights. Dark horse to win the division if everything comes together, but that's a big "if."
Atlanta - Gone are the days of the "Oldlanta" Hawks teams. This Hawks squad has an average age of 24.6 years old - the youngest average age in the league. The Hawks have lessened the fanatical devotion to defensive players that characterized them the past couple of years and have brought in some offensive talent. They are not contenders yet - they're too young and they don't yet have the depth to compete with the stronger teams in the East - but you can see the potential lurking on their bench... and since Wig has a (deserved) reputation of being a bit trade-crazy, you have to think he's looking hard at moving some of his players - except Marshall, who can rest easy knowing RFA rules will keep his name out of the trade rumor mill this year. Better hope after squeaking into the playoffs last year that they're a year older, a year better, and more likely to make the playoffs.
CENTRAL - PRETENDERS
Bulls - The Bulls have bigs that are "jack of all trades, master of none" - especially Sabonis and McKey, but without guys that love to rebound, I'm not sure they have the wherewithal to hang with most teams inside. The Bulls have surrounded Kobe with Armstrong, Legler, Walters, and Bibby - all guys that love to shoot but probably shouldn't shoot it. The Bulls really need to move one or two of their guards for defensive frontcourt help to get this team to be a little more balanced, and will struggle until they do - Kobe isn't ready to carry this team on his own yet.
Pacers - Much like the 76ers, the Pacers squad is full of guys that are a year or two past their primes or a year or two away from hitting their primes. The Pacers blew up their roster last year and are rebuilding around Paul Pierce - expect a lot of lineup tinkering this year to find out who they want to keep, who they want to dump, and how to play them together.
MIDWEST - CONTENDERS
Mavericks - The defending champs still have Penny. Hakeem still has some fuel in the tank. Piatkowski is a great shoooter. The big question is whether Antawn Jamison is ready to carry the load yet. I think the answer is no, but Penny is good enough I'll give the two-time defending champs the benefit of the doubt. They're not the odds-on favorite like they've been the last couple of years, though.
Nuggets - Veteran (read "old") team with a lot of talent and making a lot of money. If they keep the team together and pay the luxury tax, they probably can challenge in the West. Robinson and Miller are still an excellent 1-2 punch, Horry is a great "glue" guy, Mookie can still defend, and Kukoc, Spoon and Dehere are quality rotation players that can take advantage of most teams' bench and weaker starters. They'll be a tough out unless the tax bogeyman implodes them.
Timberwolves - Webber and Hill can both do it all, and Houston and Pack are a potent offensive tandem in the backcourt. I suspect they try to go small-ball and play Day or Overton with their four stars and bring Roberts off the bench. This is a team I think could win the division or could really push themselves over the top with a trade if they're inclined to make one. We'll see. They'll be in the mix for the division crown, that's certain.
MIDWEST - PRETENDERS
Spurs - The talent is there... it's been there for a couple of seasons now. Rasheed had a disastrous training camp, but should still be a potent backup big man. But I can't help but think the talent has never mixed well for some reason and with the cast of players the same, no reason to think it will start working now. Should make the playoffs, but not going to threaten for a division crown.
Jazz - The young core of Wells, Marbury, and Duncan is probably a year or two away from dominance, and the supporting cast just isn't enough yet to carry them. Fisher, Ratliff, and Anderson all need another year or two as well. Might make the playoffs, but not ready to contend yet.
Rockets - Nick Anderson is a nice sidekick for Shaq, but I don't see where else they are going to get offense. Maybe Danny Manning provides them the spark they need, but if he's not, nobody else on the roster is going to scare opposing defenses. And most of their players are allergic to defense. Shaq might block 6 shots per game this year and it won't be enough. There are just too many concerns here for me to think they're going to contend.
Grizzlies - Vince Carter will get every shot he wants in a ROY season to remember. Loco has a few pieces that might pan out in 3-4 years but make no mistake, the Grizzlies are rebuilding and Vinsanity will be a one-man show.
PACIFIC - CONTENDERS
Warriors - Kemp, Ceballos, and Brown got some extra offensive firepower in Hawkins and Chapman. Like the Warriors needed more help. They're the odds-on favorites until dethroned... or until they trade Kemp.
Kings - McGrady and Augmon on the court together make it impossible for defenses to stop the Kings' offense, and with a defensive anchor like Camby, the Kings are scary. They go 7 or 8 players deep and should be able to make quick work of most non-elite teams. They'll challenge the Warriors for the Pacific, but until I see Kemp lose the division title, I can't pick the Kings.
Clippers - Needed some defense last season and brought in Causwell to address that in free agency. Could use one more scorer to go with Sprewell and Van Exel. They've been quietly good for a while now and while I don't think they'll win the division, they should have enough to easily make the playoffs.
PACIFIC - PRETENDERS
Suns - A deep team and O'Neal is finally looking like he's ready to supplant Daugherty in the middle. The Suns have a lot of guys that like to shoot the ball (Iverson, Brown, Van Horn, Jordan, White Chocolate) and not a lot of guys that like to do the dirty work of defense (pretty much only their vets, Jordan, Daugherty, and Brown). That usually makes a playoff team... with a first-round exit.
Lakers - Rebuilding around Kevin Garnett and Larry Hughes. They still have the pieces to push for a 7 or 8 seed, but new old GM ballsohard won't be satisfied with that and would rather trade vets - even KJ - to accumulate young pieces for the future.
Blazers - Dirk Nowitzki isn't ready to take over the team, so this is still Shawn Bradley's squad... and we know kucoach has tried to trade Bradley already. Dennis Scott and Tim Hardaway are offensive-minded vets that aren't around for the long haul - like the Lakers, I expect the Blazers to be active traders trying to send off their veteran talent for younger parts to build around their future superstar PF.
Supersonics - Baker and Gatling are on the downside of their careers, and there's no heir apparent in the frontcourt. Doug Christie, at 28, isn't a guy you can stake your future on. The Sonics are in the awkward position of not being good enough to contend now and also not having the "face of the future" on their squad yet. It doesn't help that their GM situation is unsettled. Until we can see the new GM showing his vision for the future of the team they will founder.
ATLANTIC - CONTENDERS
Nets - No other team in the Atlantic can match the firepower of Gugliotta, Walker, and Rider. Their offensive core is in their prime and they have surrounded them with a talented crew of veterans like Jackson, Richardson, and Seikaly. Now that the Celtics have broken it up the Nets should be one of three teams fighting for the division crown. I give the Nets the nod because, as a veteran squad, they have the incentive to make moves to win sooner rather than later - the future in New Jersey is now.
Heat - With one of the best groups of perimeter players in the league, the Heat rely on Jackson, Payton, and Mayes to set the tone offensively and defensively. Their interior, unfortunately, is a bit suspect, with Robinson a guy who shies away from contact and Keefe a battler, but undersized upfront. If the Heat can find a way to bring in some interior beef without giving up too much on the perimeter, they might have the inside track on the division crown. Until they actually go get that added size, though, I can't rank them higher. Like the Nets, the Heat are kind of heavy on veterans, so I expect they will try to make moves to go after the title this season.
Magic - A well-balanced starting five defensively, but a bit lacking in frontcourt firepower. This team will be a threat to win the Atlantic regular season crown, but, like the Heat, will be hard-pressed to keep teams with a lot of bulk off the boards - and at some point in the postseason, they're going to run into such a team. Even though most of their squad is old (they're the oldest average age in the league), a couple of their key pieces (Kidd, Stack) are still pretty young, so the Magic may be a little more hesitant than the Nets or Heat to pull off a blockbuster trade that helps them win now at the expense of the future... and their bench outside of Ellis is a huge concern.
ATLANTIC - PRETENDERS
76ers - This team has a bunch of players that are a year away - Bobby Jackson and Raef LaFrentz are probably a year away from really being ready to start, and Rik Smits, Glen Rice, and even Anthony Peeler are probably a year removed from their primes. The Sixers don't have much off the bench and are probably going to have to consider rebuilding, as much of their offensive core is moving out of, not into, their primes. This observer thinks that with LaFrentz' three-pointing capability at center, it would be really interesting to see the Sixers embrace the three-point shot fully and start putting together a roster of young three-point bombers - one that resembles the Clippers teams of Cliff Robinson's heyday with Terry Mills. Not a contender this season, and will struggle even to get a playoff spot.
Knicks - The big problem here is most of their players are three or four years out of their primes now. This lineup would have been frightening in 1994 - but not any more. The Knicks will score a ton of points, but will give up a ton of points also. This is a team that should be in full rebuilding mode, trading off their veteran players to anyone who will take them. Will they go that route, though?
Celtics - Alonzo will be putting up truly ridiculous stats this season, as he no longer has to share the ball with Coleman, Hardaway, and Richmond, all of whom loved to shoot. The problem is that nobody else in Boston is worth a darn, and the Celtics' Green Reign of Terror over the East has clearly come to an end. Zo might have the best statistical season of his career, but this team will lose more games this year than they have in the past three or four years combined.
Wizards - Paid Juwan Howard a huge contract in RFA and let go of David Wesley to keep him. Howard, like Zo, will put up huge numbers on a team devoid of other scoring talent but the regression of Joe Smith in Training Camp and a series of strikeouts in Free Agency have put J2 into rebuild mode. Since he can't move Juwan by rule, you know Howard will stay at least for the season, but look for everyone else to be shopped extensively this season. The attempt to turn over the roster will make it difficult for this team to build any sort of cohesion.
CENTRAL - CONTENDERS
Bucks - Last season's division winners lost Brian Grant to free agency, but replaced him with former all star Derek Strong, who I think will make it so they don't miss Grant at all. This is an extremely deep squad with a bench that has guys like Fox (or Phills), Muresan, and Murdock who could probably start for a number of other teams. The core of the team is clearly Rose and Ilgauskas, and they have the veteran parts around those two to be the favorites to come out of the East now that Boston is rebuilding... and with Rose and Big Z still young, the Bucks may have to shuffle the supporting cast, but look to be good for a long time.
Cavs - Have the potential to make a huge leap this season. Acquiring Terry Mills and Jon Barry from the defending champion Mavs gives Steve Nash three terrific shooters to pick from in the starting lineup as they join Eddie Jones, and Elden Campbell is a defensive-minded center with enough offensive game to make teams pay attention. I think, though, that either Campbell or Jayson Williams will have to be moved for pennies on the dollar to avoid getting socked with a big luxury tax bill, and that loss of depth in the frontcourt will be just enough to cost them the division title to the Bucks. They look like potential contenders in the East, however.
Raptors - Will put a scare into a log of teams this season, as they are young and hungry. No rotation player over the age of 30, but could use an upgrade at SF and are probably a year away in at PF and C - I think Miller and Grant aren't quite championship-caliber bigs yet. Cassell will be sneaky good behind Billups and Tim Thomas might be asked to take on a bigger role behind Rodney Rogers this year. Probably hit their stride next season, but will win some games they shouldn't this year and if everything breaks their way, might find a way to push for the division crown.
Pistons - The Pistons have very talented wings and guards, but are somewhat lacking in the bulk department this season. If the Pistons can get a vintage defensive performance from any one of Hill, Benjamin, or Purdue, they'll be a threat to win most nights - but if they can't, they'll struggle. The Pistons' defense looks surprisingly adept and should be able to handle teams without great backcourt defense to slow down Steve Smith - but I think they'll drive Tray crazy by playing to the level of their competition most nights. Dark horse to win the division if everything comes together, but that's a big "if."
Atlanta - Gone are the days of the "Oldlanta" Hawks teams. This Hawks squad has an average age of 24.6 years old - the youngest average age in the league. The Hawks have lessened the fanatical devotion to defensive players that characterized them the past couple of years and have brought in some offensive talent. They are not contenders yet - they're too young and they don't yet have the depth to compete with the stronger teams in the East - but you can see the potential lurking on their bench... and since Wig has a (deserved) reputation of being a bit trade-crazy, you have to think he's looking hard at moving some of his players - except Marshall, who can rest easy knowing RFA rules will keep his name out of the trade rumor mill this year. Better hope after squeaking into the playoffs last year that they're a year older, a year better, and more likely to make the playoffs.
CENTRAL - PRETENDERS
Bulls - The Bulls have bigs that are "jack of all trades, master of none" - especially Sabonis and McKey, but without guys that love to rebound, I'm not sure they have the wherewithal to hang with most teams inside. The Bulls have surrounded Kobe with Armstrong, Legler, Walters, and Bibby - all guys that love to shoot but probably shouldn't shoot it. The Bulls really need to move one or two of their guards for defensive frontcourt help to get this team to be a little more balanced, and will struggle until they do - Kobe isn't ready to carry this team on his own yet.
Pacers - Much like the 76ers, the Pacers squad is full of guys that are a year or two past their primes or a year or two away from hitting their primes. The Pacers blew up their roster last year and are rebuilding around Paul Pierce - expect a lot of lineup tinkering this year to find out who they want to keep, who they want to dump, and how to play them together.
MIDWEST - CONTENDERS
Mavericks - The defending champs still have Penny. Hakeem still has some fuel in the tank. Piatkowski is a great shoooter. The big question is whether Antawn Jamison is ready to carry the load yet. I think the answer is no, but Penny is good enough I'll give the two-time defending champs the benefit of the doubt. They're not the odds-on favorite like they've been the last couple of years, though.
Nuggets - Veteran (read "old") team with a lot of talent and making a lot of money. If they keep the team together and pay the luxury tax, they probably can challenge in the West. Robinson and Miller are still an excellent 1-2 punch, Horry is a great "glue" guy, Mookie can still defend, and Kukoc, Spoon and Dehere are quality rotation players that can take advantage of most teams' bench and weaker starters. They'll be a tough out unless the tax bogeyman implodes them.
Timberwolves - Webber and Hill can both do it all, and Houston and Pack are a potent offensive tandem in the backcourt. I suspect they try to go small-ball and play Day or Overton with their four stars and bring Roberts off the bench. This is a team I think could win the division or could really push themselves over the top with a trade if they're inclined to make one. We'll see. They'll be in the mix for the division crown, that's certain.
MIDWEST - PRETENDERS
Spurs - The talent is there... it's been there for a couple of seasons now. Rasheed had a disastrous training camp, but should still be a potent backup big man. But I can't help but think the talent has never mixed well for some reason and with the cast of players the same, no reason to think it will start working now. Should make the playoffs, but not going to threaten for a division crown.
Jazz - The young core of Wells, Marbury, and Duncan is probably a year or two away from dominance, and the supporting cast just isn't enough yet to carry them. Fisher, Ratliff, and Anderson all need another year or two as well. Might make the playoffs, but not ready to contend yet.
Rockets - Nick Anderson is a nice sidekick for Shaq, but I don't see where else they are going to get offense. Maybe Danny Manning provides them the spark they need, but if he's not, nobody else on the roster is going to scare opposing defenses. And most of their players are allergic to defense. Shaq might block 6 shots per game this year and it won't be enough. There are just too many concerns here for me to think they're going to contend.
Grizzlies - Vince Carter will get every shot he wants in a ROY season to remember. Loco has a few pieces that might pan out in 3-4 years but make no mistake, the Grizzlies are rebuilding and Vinsanity will be a one-man show.
PACIFIC - CONTENDERS
Warriors - Kemp, Ceballos, and Brown got some extra offensive firepower in Hawkins and Chapman. Like the Warriors needed more help. They're the odds-on favorites until dethroned... or until they trade Kemp.
Kings - McGrady and Augmon on the court together make it impossible for defenses to stop the Kings' offense, and with a defensive anchor like Camby, the Kings are scary. They go 7 or 8 players deep and should be able to make quick work of most non-elite teams. They'll challenge the Warriors for the Pacific, but until I see Kemp lose the division title, I can't pick the Kings.
Clippers - Needed some defense last season and brought in Causwell to address that in free agency. Could use one more scorer to go with Sprewell and Van Exel. They've been quietly good for a while now and while I don't think they'll win the division, they should have enough to easily make the playoffs.
PACIFIC - PRETENDERS
Suns - A deep team and O'Neal is finally looking like he's ready to supplant Daugherty in the middle. The Suns have a lot of guys that like to shoot the ball (Iverson, Brown, Van Horn, Jordan, White Chocolate) and not a lot of guys that like to do the dirty work of defense (pretty much only their vets, Jordan, Daugherty, and Brown). That usually makes a playoff team... with a first-round exit.
Lakers - Rebuilding around Kevin Garnett and Larry Hughes. They still have the pieces to push for a 7 or 8 seed, but new old GM ballsohard won't be satisfied with that and would rather trade vets - even KJ - to accumulate young pieces for the future.
Blazers - Dirk Nowitzki isn't ready to take over the team, so this is still Shawn Bradley's squad... and we know kucoach has tried to trade Bradley already. Dennis Scott and Tim Hardaway are offensive-minded vets that aren't around for the long haul - like the Lakers, I expect the Blazers to be active traders trying to send off their veteran talent for younger parts to build around their future superstar PF.
Supersonics - Baker and Gatling are on the downside of their careers, and there's no heir apparent in the frontcourt. Doug Christie, at 28, isn't a guy you can stake your future on. The Sonics are in the awkward position of not being good enough to contend now and also not having the "face of the future" on their squad yet. It doesn't help that their GM situation is unsettled. Until we can see the new GM showing his vision for the future of the team they will founder.
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