Post by IamQuailman on Dec 4, 2014 14:29:18 GMT -6
HELLO, Mr. C Prej and I have decided to do a little bit of research into the history of the lottery to look up who's been the luckiest and the not-so-luckiest. Also, we wanted to identify potential "hotspots" for pre-lottery draft positions. Below, you can see the lists of results for each draft (both pre- and post-lottery).
Now to the nitty-gritty... the findings. We threw these numbers into a pivot table and decided to play around. Before discussing the results, there are a couple nuances used in our grading process, as well as system nuances. To determine our grades, we took every team who ever entered the lotto and took the value of their draft position change (pre to post) and summed them up together over all the times they were in the lottery. For example, if I was originally listed at #2 and fell to #5, my value would be -3. One of the nuances that we've seen over the years comes from the ties in record as reflected pre-lottery. When the game runs the lottery, it doesn't take into consideration the original draft order in regards to ties. It spits out the draft order, and 3 teams with a 17-65 record may have flip flopped around a bit within the realm of their 3 spots. For example, pre-lotto, Team A is #5, Team B is #6, and Team C is #7, and all 3 have the same record. Assuming none of them jump to the Top 3, Team A could be spit out as #5, #6, or #7. Why? I don't know, but that's just how it is and we have to...
Anyway, the screencaps from our pivot tables are below, and below them are the findings.
TEAM POINTS
DRAFT YEAR MOVEMENT
Top 3 BEST Luck:
1. Minnesota Timberwolves - Hit lotto twice (#1 twice)
2. San Antonio Spurs - Hit lotto twice (#2 once, #3 once)
3. Utah Jazz - Hit lotto twice (#1 once, #3 once)
Top 3 WORST Luck:
1. Milwaukee Bucks (-8) - Fell out of the Top 3 3 times (#2 twice, #3 once)
2. Seattle Supersonics (-7) - Fell out of the Top 3 3 times (#1 once, #3 twice)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (-3) - Fell out of the Top 3 1 time (#1 once)
3. Sacramento Kings (-3) - Fell out of the Top 3 1 time (#2 once)
**Honorable Mention: Phoenix Suns (-2) - fell out of Top 3 twice (#1 once, #3 once)
○ Could argue that despite the score, Suns should be #3 worst luck
Breakdown by Pre-Draft Lotto Position
#1 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE = -15
- #1 has nothing to gain (outside of the BPA) and everything to lose
- Doesn't help that #1 overall before lotto has stayed #1 after lotto only ONCE in the history of #SLOE
- #1 has fallen out of the lotto 4 times and to #3 once… ouch!
#2 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE = -5
- #2 overall has hit #1 in the lotto 4 times in the history of #SLOE
- However, when they've fallen out… it's never been only 1 spot or stayed the same.
- If you don't score #1 overall, look forward to picking #4-#6
#3 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE= -6
- #3 overall has hit #1 in the lotto only 1 time and #2 only 1 time (96 and 97 respectively)
- All previous drafts? Fell out of the Top 3 (#4 twice, #5 twice, #6 once)
- Are the past two years a new trend or anomaly?
#4 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE = +2
- #4 overall has jumped into the Top 3 4 times in the league's history
- #4 has never jumped to #1 (twice to #2, twice to #3)
- #4 has never fallen past #6 in the history of our league
#5 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE = -1
- #5 has jumped into the Top 3 only twice in league's history, and both times to #3
- #5 has also stayed put twice
- However, when falling it's fallen to #7 more often than #6 (2 times v. 1 time)
#6 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE = +6
- #6 has jumped into the Top 3 3 times (#2 twice, #1 once)
- #6 has stayed the same only once
- When this pick falls though… #8 is the usual destination (twice), with #7 being the other (once)
#7 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE = +11
- #7 is the hot spot for lotto picks
- #7 has landed in the top 3 twice (#3 and #2)
- #7 has also swapped spots with typed records twice, jumping to #6
#8 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE = -3
- #8 is the unlucky victim of tied-record swaps, switching with tied records listed behind them in the pre-lotto draft order twice.
#11 - OVERALL POSITION CHANGE = +10
- #11 is the only position outside of the Top 3 to ever hit #1 in the lotto
- Let's just call this a rarity or… JNR IS A LUCKY DUCK.
AS A RESULT OF OUR FINDINGS, these are the hot spots for pre-draft lotto... are you there?
HOT PRE-LOTTO DRAFT SPOTS:
1. #7
2. #6
3. #2
4. #4
5. #5
6. #3
7. #1
8. #8
I hope everyone enjoys this article! Please feel free to comment or leave feedback!
