Wig's RFA look-ahead (and "who to watch" in the playoffs)
Sept 29, 2014 16:36:13 GMT -6
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Post by WigNosy on Sept 29, 2014 16:36:13 GMT -6
I didn't cover all the potential RFA's, just the ones I thought people would care about, especially as playoff season rolls around because teams will be watching almost all of these guys in the playoffs to see who's deserving of money. While some of these guys are going to get paid no matter what, the rest of them could make - or lose - a lot of money with a strong (or awful) playoff showing.
STARS
Anfernee Hardaway (Mavericks) - All you need to know about Hardaway is this: the Mavericks brought Hardaway in to be the cornerstone of their franchise and have had no compunctions about shipping out other young prospects, picks, and anything else they can lay their hands on in an attempt to surround Hardaway with the pieces that could bring a title to Dallas. It hasn't worked yet, but Dallas is committed to Hardaway and even a max offer would be matched without hesitation. Teams will probably offer Penny money in hopes the Mavericks somehow forget to match him, but Darth already had his senior moment for this year with the Sim 12 Pick 'Em. No way does he forget to match again.
Chris Webber (Timberwolves) - Much like the Mavericks with Hardaway, the Timberwolves have been structured to build around Webber. The Timberwolves simply aren't about to allow Chris to get away to another team and will match even a max offer.
Isaiah Rider (Nets) - While he may not be the overwhelming overall talent Hardaway and Webber are, Rider has proved he has the ability to be an alpha scorer since he came into the league. Again, there will be no hesitation to match max dollars here; the odds of seeing Rider change jerseys in the forseeable future are slim and none.
STARTERS
Shawn Bradley (Blazers) - The Blazers have kind of been built around Bradley's defense and while his offense is middling at best, he's efficient and passable. It could be argued he is not a max player, but he's pretty close to being a max player and given the way that the Blazers have built themselves around his contributions, I think they feel he's the lynchpin - lose him and their team falls apart. They'll match any offer up to the max.
Toni Kukoc (Celtics) - Kukoc has been a huge part of the Celtics' Eastern Conference domination but I don't think the Celtics feel they can afford to keep him if someone offers him max dollars. On the other hand, he's already 28 years old, so I'm not sure teams will be willing to offer him max dollars, worried that he'll start to decline. This is one of the hardest calls to make - the Celtics' decision on whether to keep him will probably depend almost entirely on the dollar figure he can command... but I'm not sure if he can command enough to cause the Celtics to let him go. Kukoc's play in the playoffs will be huge in terms of (a) how much money will get thrown his way and (b) how high the Celtics will reach to match. The bottom line is you can probably get Kukoc in RFA, but you'll also probably have to overpay to do so.
Nick Van Exel (Clippers) - Van Exel represents the Clippers' youth, but they're entering a rebuilding period and may not want to have large, long-term contracts tying up their team's ability to make moves. Like Kukoc, a team that throws Nick a max offer can probably get him; unlike Kukoc, Nick is young enough that he can probably command a max offer in RFA. I don't know who's going to throw it at him - perhaps a point guard-starved team like the Pistons - but I expect someone throws big money at Nick and the Clippers won't want to match it and he'll be playing elsewhere next season. The only guy not in the playoffs on this list, Nick may be forgotten as the playoffs move on - but shouldn't be.
BORDERLINE STARTERS
Vin Baker (Sonics) - The best player in this tier, Vin is clearly not going to command a maximum contract, but he's going to be paid pretty well. Baker has anchored the Seattle frontcourt for four years and finally got a decent second big when the Sonics brought in Gatling. He's got enough offensive skills to force his man to be honest and has been a decent defender. In other words, he's got enough talent to start and to be a team's fourth-best starter while doing it. He's still on the young side (25) and his big offensive shortcoming - free throws - promises some improvement yet. Unless the cap makes a major jump, the Sonics will probably be sweating a contract that pays him 60% or more of a max deal... and I think some team will offer it to him... and the Sonics, having finally watched Kevin Gamble fall off the books and stuck with an overpaid Tracy Murray, aren't going to be in a giving mood. Vin can probably be yours if the price is right. Vin's playoff performance will go a long way to setting his value in the market as teams will want to gauge how well he can play (a) with another good frontcourt player and (b) against elite competition.
Dino Radja (Knicks) - Dino is an interesting case study; like Kukoc, he came into the league as an older player and has produced decently (not nearly at Kukoc's level, but he's held his own as a starter). The Knicks are not going to want to match big money because their salary commitments for next year (plus the signings required to fill their roster) will have them skirting the cap even without Radja. That said, I'm not sure they can afford to lose his production. This is another case of, "if you overpay a little for him, you can probably get him" but I honestly think nobody throws enough money his way to make the Knicks blanche and he's in New York next season. Dino's value will be less affected by his playoff performance than any player besides the "max no matter what" crew.
Antonio Davis (Lakers) - Like Dino, Antonio is an older player who has put up respectable numbers for a big man, but is on a team that will be flirting with cap disaster next season. This is always a good combination for the player to get slightly overpaid and jump to another team. The Lakers also have to deal with the impending Restricted Free Agency of Ervin Johnson (more on him in a moment) so it wouldn't surprise me to see a team in need of bigs double up and offer both Johnson and Davis similar contracts knowing that the Lakers can't afford to match both. Davis may never again post 15.5 points and 8.1 rebounds like he did his rookie season in Milwaukee, but he's a decent backup big who can start in a pinch for undermanned teams. The Lakers aren't going to keep both Davis and Johnson, and may not keep either one.
Ervin Johnson (Lakers) - More defensively-focused player than Antonio Davis and like Antonio, is a guy that will fit into most rotations as a backup big and could start on a team that needs beef up front. Besides the now-neglected photo blog, "not Magic" Johnson has shown an ability to clog the middle and block shots, and so while nobody will be throwing a max at him, I expect he will get enough interest that the Lakers will not be thrilled about trying to match the contract he eventually gets. Depending on how big an offer he and Davis get, at least one, possibly both, may be gone next year.
Terry Dehere (Nuggets) - Took the jump to "starting SG" last season and put up prety nice numbers... and got hurt early this season and never made his way back into the Nuggets' rotation. I think the Nuggets would like to keep him if he slips under the radar, but I don't think that's going to happen... and since the Nuggets probably prioritize keeping Mookie over Dehere, I think Dehere is another RFA that's going to have a new address next season.
STARS
Anfernee Hardaway (Mavericks) - All you need to know about Hardaway is this: the Mavericks brought Hardaway in to be the cornerstone of their franchise and have had no compunctions about shipping out other young prospects, picks, and anything else they can lay their hands on in an attempt to surround Hardaway with the pieces that could bring a title to Dallas. It hasn't worked yet, but Dallas is committed to Hardaway and even a max offer would be matched without hesitation. Teams will probably offer Penny money in hopes the Mavericks somehow forget to match him, but Darth already had his senior moment for this year with the Sim 12 Pick 'Em. No way does he forget to match again.
Chris Webber (Timberwolves) - Much like the Mavericks with Hardaway, the Timberwolves have been structured to build around Webber. The Timberwolves simply aren't about to allow Chris to get away to another team and will match even a max offer.
Isaiah Rider (Nets) - While he may not be the overwhelming overall talent Hardaway and Webber are, Rider has proved he has the ability to be an alpha scorer since he came into the league. Again, there will be no hesitation to match max dollars here; the odds of seeing Rider change jerseys in the forseeable future are slim and none.
STARTERS
Shawn Bradley (Blazers) - The Blazers have kind of been built around Bradley's defense and while his offense is middling at best, he's efficient and passable. It could be argued he is not a max player, but he's pretty close to being a max player and given the way that the Blazers have built themselves around his contributions, I think they feel he's the lynchpin - lose him and their team falls apart. They'll match any offer up to the max.
Toni Kukoc (Celtics) - Kukoc has been a huge part of the Celtics' Eastern Conference domination but I don't think the Celtics feel they can afford to keep him if someone offers him max dollars. On the other hand, he's already 28 years old, so I'm not sure teams will be willing to offer him max dollars, worried that he'll start to decline. This is one of the hardest calls to make - the Celtics' decision on whether to keep him will probably depend almost entirely on the dollar figure he can command... but I'm not sure if he can command enough to cause the Celtics to let him go. Kukoc's play in the playoffs will be huge in terms of (a) how much money will get thrown his way and (b) how high the Celtics will reach to match. The bottom line is you can probably get Kukoc in RFA, but you'll also probably have to overpay to do so.
Nick Van Exel (Clippers) - Van Exel represents the Clippers' youth, but they're entering a rebuilding period and may not want to have large, long-term contracts tying up their team's ability to make moves. Like Kukoc, a team that throws Nick a max offer can probably get him; unlike Kukoc, Nick is young enough that he can probably command a max offer in RFA. I don't know who's going to throw it at him - perhaps a point guard-starved team like the Pistons - but I expect someone throws big money at Nick and the Clippers won't want to match it and he'll be playing elsewhere next season. The only guy not in the playoffs on this list, Nick may be forgotten as the playoffs move on - but shouldn't be.
BORDERLINE STARTERS
Vin Baker (Sonics) - The best player in this tier, Vin is clearly not going to command a maximum contract, but he's going to be paid pretty well. Baker has anchored the Seattle frontcourt for four years and finally got a decent second big when the Sonics brought in Gatling. He's got enough offensive skills to force his man to be honest and has been a decent defender. In other words, he's got enough talent to start and to be a team's fourth-best starter while doing it. He's still on the young side (25) and his big offensive shortcoming - free throws - promises some improvement yet. Unless the cap makes a major jump, the Sonics will probably be sweating a contract that pays him 60% or more of a max deal... and I think some team will offer it to him... and the Sonics, having finally watched Kevin Gamble fall off the books and stuck with an overpaid Tracy Murray, aren't going to be in a giving mood. Vin can probably be yours if the price is right. Vin's playoff performance will go a long way to setting his value in the market as teams will want to gauge how well he can play (a) with another good frontcourt player and (b) against elite competition.
Dino Radja (Knicks) - Dino is an interesting case study; like Kukoc, he came into the league as an older player and has produced decently (not nearly at Kukoc's level, but he's held his own as a starter). The Knicks are not going to want to match big money because their salary commitments for next year (plus the signings required to fill their roster) will have them skirting the cap even without Radja. That said, I'm not sure they can afford to lose his production. This is another case of, "if you overpay a little for him, you can probably get him" but I honestly think nobody throws enough money his way to make the Knicks blanche and he's in New York next season. Dino's value will be less affected by his playoff performance than any player besides the "max no matter what" crew.
Antonio Davis (Lakers) - Like Dino, Antonio is an older player who has put up respectable numbers for a big man, but is on a team that will be flirting with cap disaster next season. This is always a good combination for the player to get slightly overpaid and jump to another team. The Lakers also have to deal with the impending Restricted Free Agency of Ervin Johnson (more on him in a moment) so it wouldn't surprise me to see a team in need of bigs double up and offer both Johnson and Davis similar contracts knowing that the Lakers can't afford to match both. Davis may never again post 15.5 points and 8.1 rebounds like he did his rookie season in Milwaukee, but he's a decent backup big who can start in a pinch for undermanned teams. The Lakers aren't going to keep both Davis and Johnson, and may not keep either one.
Ervin Johnson (Lakers) - More defensively-focused player than Antonio Davis and like Antonio, is a guy that will fit into most rotations as a backup big and could start on a team that needs beef up front. Besides the now-neglected photo blog, "not Magic" Johnson has shown an ability to clog the middle and block shots, and so while nobody will be throwing a max at him, I expect he will get enough interest that the Lakers will not be thrilled about trying to match the contract he eventually gets. Depending on how big an offer he and Davis get, at least one, possibly both, may be gone next year.
Terry Dehere (Nuggets) - Took the jump to "starting SG" last season and put up prety nice numbers... and got hurt early this season and never made his way back into the Nuggets' rotation. I think the Nuggets would like to keep him if he slips under the radar, but I don't think that's going to happen... and since the Nuggets probably prioritize keeping Mookie over Dehere, I think Dehere is another RFA that's going to have a new address next season.
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