Post by NOLa. on Jun 21, 2014 16:26:52 GMT -6
We're finally close to finishing up our 5th season and I know what everyone is waiting for: The Lotto. The Lotto is just like the beast that is the training camp monster in that it can make or break any and every team participating. In the Lotto any team can jump up to grab the #1 pick if the sim league gods favor them, and the gods can also smite a team by dropping them as much as 3 spots from their final standing. The complete randomness and unpredictability of the computer is felt and known by most GMs in the league and the Lotto is no different, and this time there's a grand prize to be had for one team.
I'll get to it in a moment but the class is fairly deep concerning talent and depth in the top 10, but every lotto team is eyeing up the true difference maker in PF Kevin Garnett. As deep as this class is there isn't another player that will come close to the potential impact Garnett has entering the league for the lucky team who gets him. There's so much to like about him and almost nothing that makes him weak. Other than Garnett the pool is wide open for the order of 2-8, so how will the draft shake out? We don't have the order yet so I'll go off the Draft Preview page and try to match team needs vs wants and fit for lotto teams.
1.
Cleveland Cavaliers - PF Kevin Garnett
Analysis: KG is going #1, there's no qualms about it. The kicker is "who" gets KG, and with this article we're gonna stick with the worst team getting the best player in perhaps the last few draft classes. KG is a once-in-a-generation player in real life and in the sim league. Will be the youngest player in the league at 18 years old, great size for a PF, will be a primary scorer for seasons to come and a lock down defender in the post. His base attributes are significantly lower than prior #1 picks but he oozes potential in several key areas for his position. On the right team he could be a versatile option at both the C position and possibly SF.
Areas of Concern: Very few but one is the risk of a training camp hit to a player already low in his attributes which is bad for any prospect, but especially for a boom-or-bust that is KG. His athleticism, if unchanged, leaves something to be desired as they are about average. Potentially turnover prone if his handles does not steadily improve with his progression. As I said earlier, there's no red flag on this prospect. The only flaw is he isn't perfect.
Team Fit: Cavs could use anyone that is talented on a cheap contract, and boy would KG be a nice boost for the new owner looking to start fresh? KG and Jayson William would be a nice tandem in the post and Muggsy is good enough to feed scorers still. Wilkens could slide back to the 3 and have a more balanced team than in seasons past.
2.
Milwaukee Bucks - PF Rasheed Wallace
Analysis: Rasheed Wallace is like KG. Not currently impressive but potentially an All Star (possibly All NBA) type of player. He's got the inside-outside game that few can compare to and potentially another lock down defender in the post. Good size and adequate athleticism that could slide to the C position and be a mismatch nightmare for most teams if needed. Not sure he should be a team's #1 scoring option but paired with a talented wing or guard could really transform a team from bottom dweller to playoff hopeful.
Areas of Concern: Wallace will need time to be a solid rebounder, and even with time he will not be a reliable offensive rebounder anyways. Needs time to develop. Small TO concern if his handles or passing does not improve if he becomes a key player option.
Team Fit: For the Bucks it isn't the perfect fit since they have Brian Grant at the PF already and with a good training camp could be the ideal PF for the team to move forward with. But talent is needed and Wallace could possibly play the C position if developed and trained properly. Would the Bucks want to take another chance on a PF that needs time to develop like Robert Horry? I think with Wallace you take that chance because he'll have a more complete game than Horry ever could have. A player the Bucks could also grab here is Jerry Stackhouse, but with Rose I think they put their money on Wallace.
3.
Phoenix Suns - SF Jerry Stackhouse
Analysis: Jerry Stackhouse, as he currently stands, will come into the league as one of the best scorers in the league. Inside-outside scorer on the perimeter, decent size, and an explosive athlete that gives him the ability to play the SG position as well. With most in the league converting SGs to SFs, Stackhouse will be a luxury to have.
Areas of Concern: Defensive liability. Those two words about sum up the red flag on Stackhouse but he has other smaller concerns as well. Won't be a reliable rebounder and even though he's so offensively focused he has poor handles. Whether or not he will be able to create his own shot is still in question, so a team with low Motion may not like this aspect in his game.
Team Fit: The Suns need players at any position so grabbing the BPA would be the smartest route unless GI sees somebody he would like to go forward strategically. Stackhouse makes sense as the Suns would get the best and most explosive scorer in the class, let him play and develop for a year, and get another good pick in a super deep 1996 draft to pair him up with.
4.
Chicago Bulls - SF Michael Finley
Analysis: Finley is just like Stackhouse with a few minor differences. They are both inside-outside scorers but Finley is better suited on an outside focused team for now as his inside game develops. He's slightly better defensively on the wing and his handles are average, so you won't have to worry about TOs as much as the other guys with Finley. Not as explosive athletically as Stackhouse but still decent, especially his quickness at the 3 could cause problems with his height combined. Finley will be a solid key player but I wouldn't look for him to become the difference maker that puts a team over the top. Could be a SG on any team as well but SF would be his best calling card.
Areas of Concern: Fairly balanced player at the SF position he is a weak rebounder. He's quick, but his jumping is low with an already low inside game to start. Without developing his inside scoring he wouldn't be a reliable balanced scoring option. Weak defender with, at best, average strength which is a concern, but his quickness will help counter his inefficiencies.
Team Fit: Chicago has traditionally had an outside focused team with deep threat scorers on the wing, and Finley could continue the legacy for at least another decade for the Bulls. Currently the Bulls don't have talent anywhere, but with a good training camp Armstrong and Popeye Jones could develop into better players at the PG and PF positions respectively. A SF/SG player would plug in nicely.
5.
Los Angeles Lakers - C Arvydas Sabonis
Analysis: Sabonis is ready. He's already good enough to be one of the best big man in the league by his first game and he has room to grow into one of the best post defenders. 7'3" and nearly 300 lbs, Sabonis reminds me of Shawn Bradley except he's better on defense than offense by miles.
Area of Concern: Likely won't average double digit scores or a reliable scorer at all. Inside scoring is weak but it's also his lack of offensive rebounding that will prevent him from cleaning up your team's misses which most C in the league take full advantage of.
Team Fit: I'm not even sure how the Lakers got this pick but if they were in this exact situation there is no doubt in my mind what this pick would be. Sabonis allows them to trade Rony for other pieces while replacing him with a talented and cheap rookie. Sabonis is a fit on almost any team and is probably the most NBA-ready prospect in this draft. Sabonis is the ultimate win for the Lakers since they could save cap and replace a veteran with youth, giving them the flexibility to do anything moving forward.
6.
Utah Jazz - PF Antonio McDyess
Analysis: McDyess is one of my favorite prospects in this class but I think he gets overlooked thanks to KG and Rasheed. I think Antonio could go as high as #3 but the last few teams weren't necessarily in need of a PF. McDyess is a project but with enough time and development could be a steal in the draft. He has potential to be an elite (hornetsguru reference fitted in) inside scorer and has the athleticism to compliment. He's still raw but will grow into a solid low post defender and rebounder on both sides of the court.
Area of Concern: Not many but if he becomes a key player and scoring option he could be TO prone, and another concern would be his poor FT shooting. For an inside scorer who will have to force his game he's going to get fouled a lot which is good, but his conversion rate is still in question.
Team Fit: Antonio McDyess would be a godsend for the Jazz. MJ is on a discount contract and Sherman is still talented. With the backcourt set for now, a PF would be a good step into competing in the West again if they could sign or trade for a decent center in the offseason. McDyess also fits into the Jazz's inside scoring focus for offense. Could help alleviate some of the scoring pressure from MJ.
7.
San Antonio Spurs - SG Brent Barry
Analysis: Brent Barry is an interesting prospect because he can go anywhere from the 2-8 range and fit with most teams you plug him into. He's a deep threat SG with some room to grow in his shooting and defense. He's got good height for a SG at 6'6 and won't be a liability in any area of the game except for rebounding.
Area of Concern: There's some small concerns with Barry, and it is mainly his athleticism. He's strong for his position but slower, less explosive, and stamina is low for a G. Rebounding is bad but his height may help in most situations, especially against teams with smaller Gs.
Team Fit: In my projection Barry would be the prospect that falls, but not as far as Isaiah Rider that one time. Spurs would benefit greatly adding a young and talented SG to their team. Although a C or PF would be a better option there are none currently with McDyess picked before and Drazen will be 31 next season and will need a replacement to slowly transition into his role. Barry would fit perfectly with the Spurs outside scoring guard set they've had since the creation of the league starting with Drazen.
8.
Atlanta Hawks – PG Damon Stoudamire
Analysis: Damon Stoudamire is the only good PG worthy to be drafted in the lotto which is very different than past seasons. He has some value in that he is a score-first PG that may interest teams in the league since we don’t have that many currently. Stoudamire has a great balance in his scoring ability and is quick with developing handles. His defense needs time but has some noticeable room to grow on the perimeter.
Area of Concern: Several to note. He’s small in his height and weight and doesn’t have the strength or jumping to compete against the Penny’s and Kidd’s in the league. Could be easily abused by stronger and taller Gs on the boards and defense. We know he’s going to score, but will he be able to create for others to score as well? His lack of passing to start is a concern but will get better over time and can be trained.
Team Fit: I think Damon would be a good get for the Hawks management. Picking up Damon would give them the flexibility to move Skiles in a trade for other assets or stay put and allow Damon time to develop into a starting caliber PG. Even if the Hawks don’t think Stoudamire would be a good fit for their team he has good value being the only PG on the board, and the next two teams could certainly be potential trade partners to move up.
9.
Philadelpha 76ers – PF Joe Smith
Analysis: Joe Smith has an interesting game at the PF position. He is going to excel on the offensive end of the court due to his inside scoring game, good free throw shooting, and an already-developed offensive rebound skill. He has good height for his position at 6’10 and is quick for his height and size.
Area of Concern: I can’t help but stare but it’s a glaring weakness, and that’s putting it very kindly. His defensive rebounding is garbage now and will be bad for his career more than likely. He doesn’t necessarily have the strength to overpower on the boards to compensate for his lack of defensive rebounding either.
Team Fit: The 76ers probably wish Damon fell this far in the mock, but picking up Smith would be a decent option to go forward with. Anthony Mason is testing the free agency waters after being selected to his first ever All Star game this season, so he could be after some big money. Picking up Smith here could save the 76ers from going all-in on Mason and focusing on securing a PG in the free agency instead. Vlade could make up for some of Smith’s deficiencies in defensive rebounding as well.
10.
Seattle SuperSonics – PF Kurt Thomas
Analysis: Kurt Thomas might be slightly overlooked, but he’s a decently balanced player at his position that a lot of teams could use or absolutely need. His game is focused on securing the rebound on both ends and being a force on defense down low.
Area of Concern: A passing score of 5 is bad no matter what position you play, TOs are bound to happen but luckily for him he won’t be a high usage player so his turnovers could be minimal. He won’t be a reliable scorer in his career and his athleticism isn’t great either, especially his strength which is low.
Team Fit: Sonics are the other team that probably wishes Damon fell to them, but probably not since they traded Terrell Brandon last offseason who is probably identical, if not comparable. I think the Sonics could use some help at the 4 event though Charles Smith has been playing way above expectations since his weakness is on the boards, which Thomas will do well at either the backup or starter at PF. The Sonics have back-to-back picks at #10 and #11 and could use the next pick to get Eric Snow, the best pure PG remaining on the board.
I'll get to it in a moment but the class is fairly deep concerning talent and depth in the top 10, but every lotto team is eyeing up the true difference maker in PF Kevin Garnett. As deep as this class is there isn't another player that will come close to the potential impact Garnett has entering the league for the lucky team who gets him. There's so much to like about him and almost nothing that makes him weak. Other than Garnett the pool is wide open for the order of 2-8, so how will the draft shake out? We don't have the order yet so I'll go off the Draft Preview page and try to match team needs vs wants and fit for lotto teams.
1.
Cleveland Cavaliers - PF Kevin Garnett Analysis: KG is going #1, there's no qualms about it. The kicker is "who" gets KG, and with this article we're gonna stick with the worst team getting the best player in perhaps the last few draft classes. KG is a once-in-a-generation player in real life and in the sim league. Will be the youngest player in the league at 18 years old, great size for a PF, will be a primary scorer for seasons to come and a lock down defender in the post. His base attributes are significantly lower than prior #1 picks but he oozes potential in several key areas for his position. On the right team he could be a versatile option at both the C position and possibly SF.
Areas of Concern: Very few but one is the risk of a training camp hit to a player already low in his attributes which is bad for any prospect, but especially for a boom-or-bust that is KG. His athleticism, if unchanged, leaves something to be desired as they are about average. Potentially turnover prone if his handles does not steadily improve with his progression. As I said earlier, there's no red flag on this prospect. The only flaw is he isn't perfect.
Team Fit: Cavs could use anyone that is talented on a cheap contract, and boy would KG be a nice boost for the new owner looking to start fresh? KG and Jayson William would be a nice tandem in the post and Muggsy is good enough to feed scorers still. Wilkens could slide back to the 3 and have a more balanced team than in seasons past.
2.
Milwaukee Bucks - PF Rasheed WallaceAnalysis: Rasheed Wallace is like KG. Not currently impressive but potentially an All Star (possibly All NBA) type of player. He's got the inside-outside game that few can compare to and potentially another lock down defender in the post. Good size and adequate athleticism that could slide to the C position and be a mismatch nightmare for most teams if needed. Not sure he should be a team's #1 scoring option but paired with a talented wing or guard could really transform a team from bottom dweller to playoff hopeful.
Areas of Concern: Wallace will need time to be a solid rebounder, and even with time he will not be a reliable offensive rebounder anyways. Needs time to develop. Small TO concern if his handles or passing does not improve if he becomes a key player option.
Team Fit: For the Bucks it isn't the perfect fit since they have Brian Grant at the PF already and with a good training camp could be the ideal PF for the team to move forward with. But talent is needed and Wallace could possibly play the C position if developed and trained properly. Would the Bucks want to take another chance on a PF that needs time to develop like Robert Horry? I think with Wallace you take that chance because he'll have a more complete game than Horry ever could have. A player the Bucks could also grab here is Jerry Stackhouse, but with Rose I think they put their money on Wallace.
3.
Phoenix Suns - SF Jerry StackhouseAnalysis: Jerry Stackhouse, as he currently stands, will come into the league as one of the best scorers in the league. Inside-outside scorer on the perimeter, decent size, and an explosive athlete that gives him the ability to play the SG position as well. With most in the league converting SGs to SFs, Stackhouse will be a luxury to have.
Areas of Concern: Defensive liability. Those two words about sum up the red flag on Stackhouse but he has other smaller concerns as well. Won't be a reliable rebounder and even though he's so offensively focused he has poor handles. Whether or not he will be able to create his own shot is still in question, so a team with low Motion may not like this aspect in his game.
Team Fit: The Suns need players at any position so grabbing the BPA would be the smartest route unless GI sees somebody he would like to go forward strategically. Stackhouse makes sense as the Suns would get the best and most explosive scorer in the class, let him play and develop for a year, and get another good pick in a super deep 1996 draft to pair him up with.
4.
Chicago Bulls - SF Michael FinleyAnalysis: Finley is just like Stackhouse with a few minor differences. They are both inside-outside scorers but Finley is better suited on an outside focused team for now as his inside game develops. He's slightly better defensively on the wing and his handles are average, so you won't have to worry about TOs as much as the other guys with Finley. Not as explosive athletically as Stackhouse but still decent, especially his quickness at the 3 could cause problems with his height combined. Finley will be a solid key player but I wouldn't look for him to become the difference maker that puts a team over the top. Could be a SG on any team as well but SF would be his best calling card.
Areas of Concern: Fairly balanced player at the SF position he is a weak rebounder. He's quick, but his jumping is low with an already low inside game to start. Without developing his inside scoring he wouldn't be a reliable balanced scoring option. Weak defender with, at best, average strength which is a concern, but his quickness will help counter his inefficiencies.
Team Fit: Chicago has traditionally had an outside focused team with deep threat scorers on the wing, and Finley could continue the legacy for at least another decade for the Bulls. Currently the Bulls don't have talent anywhere, but with a good training camp Armstrong and Popeye Jones could develop into better players at the PG and PF positions respectively. A SF/SG player would plug in nicely.
5.
Los Angeles Lakers - C Arvydas Sabonis Analysis: Sabonis is ready. He's already good enough to be one of the best big man in the league by his first game and he has room to grow into one of the best post defenders. 7'3" and nearly 300 lbs, Sabonis reminds me of Shawn Bradley except he's better on defense than offense by miles.
Area of Concern: Likely won't average double digit scores or a reliable scorer at all. Inside scoring is weak but it's also his lack of offensive rebounding that will prevent him from cleaning up your team's misses which most C in the league take full advantage of.
Team Fit: I'm not even sure how the Lakers got this pick but if they were in this exact situation there is no doubt in my mind what this pick would be. Sabonis allows them to trade Rony for other pieces while replacing him with a talented and cheap rookie. Sabonis is a fit on almost any team and is probably the most NBA-ready prospect in this draft. Sabonis is the ultimate win for the Lakers since they could save cap and replace a veteran with youth, giving them the flexibility to do anything moving forward.
6.
Utah Jazz - PF Antonio McDyessAnalysis: McDyess is one of my favorite prospects in this class but I think he gets overlooked thanks to KG and Rasheed. I think Antonio could go as high as #3 but the last few teams weren't necessarily in need of a PF. McDyess is a project but with enough time and development could be a steal in the draft. He has potential to be an elite (hornetsguru reference fitted in) inside scorer and has the athleticism to compliment. He's still raw but will grow into a solid low post defender and rebounder on both sides of the court.
Area of Concern: Not many but if he becomes a key player and scoring option he could be TO prone, and another concern would be his poor FT shooting. For an inside scorer who will have to force his game he's going to get fouled a lot which is good, but his conversion rate is still in question.
Team Fit: Antonio McDyess would be a godsend for the Jazz. MJ is on a discount contract and Sherman is still talented. With the backcourt set for now, a PF would be a good step into competing in the West again if they could sign or trade for a decent center in the offseason. McDyess also fits into the Jazz's inside scoring focus for offense. Could help alleviate some of the scoring pressure from MJ.
7.
San Antonio Spurs - SG Brent BarryAnalysis: Brent Barry is an interesting prospect because he can go anywhere from the 2-8 range and fit with most teams you plug him into. He's a deep threat SG with some room to grow in his shooting and defense. He's got good height for a SG at 6'6 and won't be a liability in any area of the game except for rebounding.
Area of Concern: There's some small concerns with Barry, and it is mainly his athleticism. He's strong for his position but slower, less explosive, and stamina is low for a G. Rebounding is bad but his height may help in most situations, especially against teams with smaller Gs.
Team Fit: In my projection Barry would be the prospect that falls, but not as far as Isaiah Rider that one time. Spurs would benefit greatly adding a young and talented SG to their team. Although a C or PF would be a better option there are none currently with McDyess picked before and Drazen will be 31 next season and will need a replacement to slowly transition into his role. Barry would fit perfectly with the Spurs outside scoring guard set they've had since the creation of the league starting with Drazen.
8.
Atlanta Hawks – PG Damon StoudamireAnalysis: Damon Stoudamire is the only good PG worthy to be drafted in the lotto which is very different than past seasons. He has some value in that he is a score-first PG that may interest teams in the league since we don’t have that many currently. Stoudamire has a great balance in his scoring ability and is quick with developing handles. His defense needs time but has some noticeable room to grow on the perimeter.
Area of Concern: Several to note. He’s small in his height and weight and doesn’t have the strength or jumping to compete against the Penny’s and Kidd’s in the league. Could be easily abused by stronger and taller Gs on the boards and defense. We know he’s going to score, but will he be able to create for others to score as well? His lack of passing to start is a concern but will get better over time and can be trained.
Team Fit: I think Damon would be a good get for the Hawks management. Picking up Damon would give them the flexibility to move Skiles in a trade for other assets or stay put and allow Damon time to develop into a starting caliber PG. Even if the Hawks don’t think Stoudamire would be a good fit for their team he has good value being the only PG on the board, and the next two teams could certainly be potential trade partners to move up.
9.
Philadelpha 76ers – PF Joe SmithAnalysis: Joe Smith has an interesting game at the PF position. He is going to excel on the offensive end of the court due to his inside scoring game, good free throw shooting, and an already-developed offensive rebound skill. He has good height for his position at 6’10 and is quick for his height and size.
Area of Concern: I can’t help but stare but it’s a glaring weakness, and that’s putting it very kindly. His defensive rebounding is garbage now and will be bad for his career more than likely. He doesn’t necessarily have the strength to overpower on the boards to compensate for his lack of defensive rebounding either.
Team Fit: The 76ers probably wish Damon fell this far in the mock, but picking up Smith would be a decent option to go forward with. Anthony Mason is testing the free agency waters after being selected to his first ever All Star game this season, so he could be after some big money. Picking up Smith here could save the 76ers from going all-in on Mason and focusing on securing a PG in the free agency instead. Vlade could make up for some of Smith’s deficiencies in defensive rebounding as well.
10.
Seattle SuperSonics – PF Kurt ThomasAnalysis: Kurt Thomas might be slightly overlooked, but he’s a decently balanced player at his position that a lot of teams could use or absolutely need. His game is focused on securing the rebound on both ends and being a force on defense down low.
Area of Concern: A passing score of 5 is bad no matter what position you play, TOs are bound to happen but luckily for him he won’t be a high usage player so his turnovers could be minimal. He won’t be a reliable scorer in his career and his athleticism isn’t great either, especially his strength which is low.
Team Fit: Sonics are the other team that probably wishes Damon fell to them, but probably not since they traded Terrell Brandon last offseason who is probably identical, if not comparable. I think the Sonics could use some help at the 4 event though Charles Smith has been playing way above expectations since his weakness is on the boards, which Thomas will do well at either the backup or starter at PF. The Sonics have back-to-back picks at #10 and #11 and could use the next pick to get Eric Snow, the best pure PG remaining on the board.
