Post by NOLa. on Mar 17, 2014 20:38:24 GMT -6
Sim League Tank Rank
Wow, first I have to say thanks to all the owners that really took to this subject. A few owners stepped up and shared with us their thoughts and views and I was really happy about it. The explosion and reactions about the subject confirms we all feel very strongly about our stances on Tank vs. Rebuild, but I think we got all the personal jabs and feelings taken out the discussion with the cool-down period so let's continue the discussion.
What makes tanking so appealing to teams that feel like they have no chance at a title within an amount of time that can be considered short-term, ultimately leading them to demolish what they have currently for a better lottery position in the future? Thanks to a few responses there seems to be a common theme among teams who decide to tank, with the main two questions being factored in the decision process:
These are fair questions that I think most owners enter into the season with, especially the first question. What makes this tough to answer is the second part of the question which is "am I a contender next season?" Long term analysis of our teams are tough to figure out sometimes when you have aging stars that are coming off the last year of their contracts. So many events can happen within two seasons that effect each team like trades, drafts, and training camp booms/busts. However, this is my argument against teams who don't feel like they can compete long-term: Who does? There are very few teams in this league that can say wholeheartedly they will be legitimate contenders going into the next season and the reason why is they each have young core pieces they picked up in the drafts. That's the way the game works of course, or winning teams would always be winning teams and the cellar teams would always be cellar teams. The aspect I'm more interested in is where playoff teams with one or two years left of seriously contending for a title decide that now is the best time to do so. That is, lose now and win later or win now and lose later.
So why do two teams that go all out to win last season decide to cash in on firesales before the new season started? Again, not picking on the Bucks or Magic or disagreeing with what they did. When both stated to the league they were selling off I contacted both about potential trades and ended up sending a 1st to the Magic. But you can't sell to me that those two teams wouldn't be contenders this season in the East. Hell, even the Lakers management thought the Magic were early favorites to win the East. Plus the Bucks were a consistent 50+ winning team with one of the best frontcourts in the league at the time. Both the Magic and Bucks made serious moves to better their chances at winning in Season 3, and now they are mostly void of any top talent. What happened? Both came so close to making the Eastern Conference Finals with each pushing a Game 7 in Round 2 but couldn't get over the hump. I know the feels since two of my three exits in the playoffs have ended with Game 7's on my own homecourt (Mavs '91, Suns '93). I'm certain each team had the ability to contend with the roster they had before but I guess the owners saw too much uncertainty in the long term in terms of talent to compete.
The other factor involves cap space and this is fairly easy to understand on the tanking team's part. The Tax Man is a frequent patronizer of teams with older players due to pay increases based off of experience. The Magic and Bucks put themselves in a shaky situation for different reasons. The Bucks tied big money into Otis Thorpe and then extended another deal to Kevin Willis in negotiations. The contracts weren't bad by any means but paying two bigmen who turned 30 can be risky, and with other aging stars like Curry and Porter the Bucks were inevitable tax payers unless they got rid of someone, but then comes the problem of getting value back in return if you want to stay as a contender. The Magic, on the other hand, strapped themselves in and went all out for the 3rd season by bringing in loads of talent. After losing in the playoffs the Magic had a tall order to fill in the offseason. Horace Grant, Detlef Shrempf, and Derek Harper were all (or nearly) maxed players in the offseason and I think the Magic knew it. Unfortunately the Magic, if I remember correctly, did not S&T any of these guys so they came off the books for nothing in return. If that wasn't bad enough the Magic were looking at another situation the next offseason with Magic Johnson and Glen Rice coming off their deals, so it's easy to see why the Magic decided to get some sort of value in return (although the Glen Rice trade is up for debate).
We'll never know the potential each team had this season but I hope this small writeup at least shows the different scenarios that can happen to a team that makes tanking a strategy to consider. I don't think any one of us are capable of putting the best possible talent on the court and contend season-by-season and shit happens sometimes. I appreciate you listening to my rambles if you read all of that and hope you enjoy them as much as I do.
Editors Note
Last edition of #TankRank I asked you, the league, what the difference between tanking and rebuilding was in your opinion. Since there is no solid definition and the actions are subjective to the viewer, I ask that you allow me to share my idea and to discuss in this thread later. First, I want to say that there can't be a rebuild without tanking. Whether it's intentional or not, anytime a team goes from contender to bottom-3-of-the-league, a very serious drop in talent has occurred and what leads to my definition of tanking. Take out all of the situations we've discussed before like trades and bad training camps and focus only on the results of the teams this season and compare it to last season. This isn't to say that if you lose 5 more games this season than last season that you are tanking, because the difference has to be material and notable. Once the team has hit it's lowest level of talent and performance, then the team can start a rebuild. Are you in the act of rebuilding when you trade solid starters for picks 3 seasons from now? It'd be hard to win me over to agree with you right then and there. However, once the future asset is redeemed you are adding an asset to your team that reflects actual performance in the games. A 1st round pick three seasons from now won't help you win games now, but once the pick turns into a player you will finally see actual performance in the game.
Duh, NOLa.
I know it seems basic but it helps to break down the steps and process to thinking these things out. It's also the reason why I have the status of the teams with a basic ranking: tanked, tanking, and rebuilding. Each are different phases each team goes through when we are talking about teams building for a better tomorrow. Some teams have insanely quick rebuilds like the Mavs and others might have slower rebuilds than others. The Mavs were able to speed through theirs because of a solid draft and even more solid trades that brought in Russel, Seikaly, and Parrish and signed Horace Grant back to the team. Just like the sim it's a mix of talent and luck when starting over and hitting the reset button.
Thanks again for reading and hope this helped kill time between the sim!
Sincerely,
NOLa.
#1 Orlando Magic ~ 0-8
Status: Tanked
Overview: #TankRank starts with the Orlando Magic leading away with the top rank in this first edition. The team had an expiration date last season and some felt the Magic were poised to take a final stab at making the Finals, but ownership made the decision to sell the farm. Some feel a certain trade left a bad taste for the league to swallow, but they also had a few trades where they were able to acquire picks for later.
Outlook: This season they have all but thrown the towel in after the firesale. Hubert Davis looks great but it doesn't matter much right now, and their projected PG Darrell Armstrong isn't anywhere close to being a starting caliber as the floor general. That's about it in terms of talent. Looking ahead, past this season, the team collected 3 first rounds picks for this upcoming draft and has his own pick too. Either of the picks from the other team can be decent or good picks if luck swings the Magic's way, but some feel all 3 are likely to be non-lottery picks. The drawback is that they do not own their 1995 pick which belongs to the Washington Wizards. Seems risky to put everything into one season so we'll see if the Magic can turn it around like the Mavs last season.
My Take: If luck is not on your side this will get ugly.
#2 Denver Nuggets ~ 0-8
Status: Rebuilding
Overview: Coming in at #2 is the Nuggets due to incompetence by the previous owner for completely setting this team back. The new owner has come in and tried his best to set the team in the best direction to move forward and I know the feel of how much it sucks. All of the older veterans are gone from last seasons crew, but besides that the team is looking better and on the right track.
Outlook: They are on the right track but this season looks like it will be rough for Nuggets fans. Allan Houston looks good but needs time to develop, and McKey might be a good fit in Denver. The jury is still out on McKey over whether or not he's talented enough to hold down the fort at the 4 and there are plenty of bigs in the Midwest now. The Nuggets look like a lock to retain protection for this seasons draft so I don't think that will be an issue looking at the 94 draft, and they own all of their later picks plus the Pacers 95. Patience is key for this rebuild.
My Take: You're on the right track to turning your team around. A solid draft and maybe a S&T or cashing in on a big time FA next season can really do wonders for your team.
# 3 Milwaukee Bucks ~ 1-6
Status: Tanking
Overview: The Bucks the past three seasons were known for a certain trademark style of play. In the first season the Bucks pushed the pace and was one of the more offensively explosive teams in the league. In seasons 2 & 3, the team managed to hoard front court players to put out one of the deeper rotations of big men in the league. Season 4? To put it kindly, it's up in flames and...
Outlook: (continuing from Overview)... the owner is looking to fuel the fire even more. Porter is still up for grabs and is being pimped out to other owners no doubt. The team also still has Robert Horry but he's not a #1 guy on any team but instead a solid compliment to talent. The Bucks are ranked #3 because of still having Porter and other pieces but I don't think the Bucks are done and will eventually find a way to compete for the #1 rank. In terms of draft picks, the Bucks are set up nicely. Starting with the 94 draft they have their own pick plus the Cavs pick, two possible very high draft picks. Where the firesale came into play was how the Bucks traded for 1996 draft picks, arguable one of the deepest drafts in all of sim leaguedom. Four 1st round picks in 1996 and I wonder if they are looking for more, mimicking the Celtics in 1991.
My Take: View looks great if you can see past the pile of shit for this current season. 1996 might be a huge offseason for the Bucks, but right now we're still in 1993.
What makes tanking so appealing to teams that feel like they have no chance at a title within an amount of time that can be considered short-term, ultimately leading them to demolish what they have currently for a better lottery position in the future? Thanks to a few responses there seems to be a common theme among teams who decide to tank, with the main two questions being factored in the decision process:
- Am I a legitimate contender this season and possibly the next season?
- Do I want to pay more to keep the talent I have?
These are fair questions that I think most owners enter into the season with, especially the first question. What makes this tough to answer is the second part of the question which is "am I a contender next season?" Long term analysis of our teams are tough to figure out sometimes when you have aging stars that are coming off the last year of their contracts. So many events can happen within two seasons that effect each team like trades, drafts, and training camp booms/busts. However, this is my argument against teams who don't feel like they can compete long-term: Who does? There are very few teams in this league that can say wholeheartedly they will be legitimate contenders going into the next season and the reason why is they each have young core pieces they picked up in the drafts. That's the way the game works of course, or winning teams would always be winning teams and the cellar teams would always be cellar teams. The aspect I'm more interested in is where playoff teams with one or two years left of seriously contending for a title decide that now is the best time to do so. That is, lose now and win later or win now and lose later.
So why do two teams that go all out to win last season decide to cash in on firesales before the new season started? Again, not picking on the Bucks or Magic or disagreeing with what they did. When both stated to the league they were selling off I contacted both about potential trades and ended up sending a 1st to the Magic. But you can't sell to me that those two teams wouldn't be contenders this season in the East. Hell, even the Lakers management thought the Magic were early favorites to win the East. Plus the Bucks were a consistent 50+ winning team with one of the best frontcourts in the league at the time. Both the Magic and Bucks made serious moves to better their chances at winning in Season 3, and now they are mostly void of any top talent. What happened? Both came so close to making the Eastern Conference Finals with each pushing a Game 7 in Round 2 but couldn't get over the hump. I know the feels since two of my three exits in the playoffs have ended with Game 7's on my own homecourt (Mavs '91, Suns '93). I'm certain each team had the ability to contend with the roster they had before but I guess the owners saw too much uncertainty in the long term in terms of talent to compete.
The other factor involves cap space and this is fairly easy to understand on the tanking team's part. The Tax Man is a frequent patronizer of teams with older players due to pay increases based off of experience. The Magic and Bucks put themselves in a shaky situation for different reasons. The Bucks tied big money into Otis Thorpe and then extended another deal to Kevin Willis in negotiations. The contracts weren't bad by any means but paying two bigmen who turned 30 can be risky, and with other aging stars like Curry and Porter the Bucks were inevitable tax payers unless they got rid of someone, but then comes the problem of getting value back in return if you want to stay as a contender. The Magic, on the other hand, strapped themselves in and went all out for the 3rd season by bringing in loads of talent. After losing in the playoffs the Magic had a tall order to fill in the offseason. Horace Grant, Detlef Shrempf, and Derek Harper were all (or nearly) maxed players in the offseason and I think the Magic knew it. Unfortunately the Magic, if I remember correctly, did not S&T any of these guys so they came off the books for nothing in return. If that wasn't bad enough the Magic were looking at another situation the next offseason with Magic Johnson and Glen Rice coming off their deals, so it's easy to see why the Magic decided to get some sort of value in return (although the Glen Rice trade is up for debate).
We'll never know the potential each team had this season but I hope this small writeup at least shows the different scenarios that can happen to a team that makes tanking a strategy to consider. I don't think any one of us are capable of putting the best possible talent on the court and contend season-by-season and shit happens sometimes. I appreciate you listening to my rambles if you read all of that and hope you enjoy them as much as I do.
Editors Note
Last edition of #TankRank I asked you, the league, what the difference between tanking and rebuilding was in your opinion. Since there is no solid definition and the actions are subjective to the viewer, I ask that you allow me to share my idea and to discuss in this thread later. First, I want to say that there can't be a rebuild without tanking. Whether it's intentional or not, anytime a team goes from contender to bottom-3-of-the-league, a very serious drop in talent has occurred and what leads to my definition of tanking. Take out all of the situations we've discussed before like trades and bad training camps and focus only on the results of the teams this season and compare it to last season. This isn't to say that if you lose 5 more games this season than last season that you are tanking, because the difference has to be material and notable. Once the team has hit it's lowest level of talent and performance, then the team can start a rebuild. Are you in the act of rebuilding when you trade solid starters for picks 3 seasons from now? It'd be hard to win me over to agree with you right then and there. However, once the future asset is redeemed you are adding an asset to your team that reflects actual performance in the games. A 1st round pick three seasons from now won't help you win games now, but once the pick turns into a player you will finally see actual performance in the game.
Duh, NOLa.
I know it seems basic but it helps to break down the steps and process to thinking these things out. It's also the reason why I have the status of the teams with a basic ranking: tanked, tanking, and rebuilding. Each are different phases each team goes through when we are talking about teams building for a better tomorrow. Some teams have insanely quick rebuilds like the Mavs and others might have slower rebuilds than others. The Mavs were able to speed through theirs because of a solid draft and even more solid trades that brought in Russel, Seikaly, and Parrish and signed Horace Grant back to the team. Just like the sim it's a mix of talent and luck when starting over and hitting the reset button.
Thanks again for reading and hope this helped kill time between the sim!
Sincerely,
NOLa.
#1 Orlando Magic ~ 0-8
Status: Tanked
Overview: #TankRank starts with the Orlando Magic leading away with the top rank in this first edition. The team had an expiration date last season and some felt the Magic were poised to take a final stab at making the Finals, but ownership made the decision to sell the farm. Some feel a certain trade left a bad taste for the league to swallow, but they also had a few trades where they were able to acquire picks for later.
Outlook: This season they have all but thrown the towel in after the firesale. Hubert Davis looks great but it doesn't matter much right now, and their projected PG Darrell Armstrong isn't anywhere close to being a starting caliber as the floor general. That's about it in terms of talent. Looking ahead, past this season, the team collected 3 first rounds picks for this upcoming draft and has his own pick too. Either of the picks from the other team can be decent or good picks if luck swings the Magic's way, but some feel all 3 are likely to be non-lottery picks. The drawback is that they do not own their 1995 pick which belongs to the Washington Wizards. Seems risky to put everything into one season so we'll see if the Magic can turn it around like the Mavs last season.
My Take: If luck is not on your side this will get ugly.
#2 Denver Nuggets ~ 0-8
Status: Rebuilding
Overview: Coming in at #2 is the Nuggets due to incompetence by the previous owner for completely setting this team back. The new owner has come in and tried his best to set the team in the best direction to move forward and I know the feel of how much it sucks. All of the older veterans are gone from last seasons crew, but besides that the team is looking better and on the right track.
Outlook: They are on the right track but this season looks like it will be rough for Nuggets fans. Allan Houston looks good but needs time to develop, and McKey might be a good fit in Denver. The jury is still out on McKey over whether or not he's talented enough to hold down the fort at the 4 and there are plenty of bigs in the Midwest now. The Nuggets look like a lock to retain protection for this seasons draft so I don't think that will be an issue looking at the 94 draft, and they own all of their later picks plus the Pacers 95. Patience is key for this rebuild.
My Take: You're on the right track to turning your team around. A solid draft and maybe a S&T or cashing in on a big time FA next season can really do wonders for your team.
# 3 Milwaukee Bucks ~ 1-6
Status: Tanking
Overview: The Bucks the past three seasons were known for a certain trademark style of play. In the first season the Bucks pushed the pace and was one of the more offensively explosive teams in the league. In seasons 2 & 3, the team managed to hoard front court players to put out one of the deeper rotations of big men in the league. Season 4? To put it kindly, it's up in flames and...
Outlook: (continuing from Overview)... the owner is looking to fuel the fire even more. Porter is still up for grabs and is being pimped out to other owners no doubt. The team also still has Robert Horry but he's not a #1 guy on any team but instead a solid compliment to talent. The Bucks are ranked #3 because of still having Porter and other pieces but I don't think the Bucks are done and will eventually find a way to compete for the #1 rank. In terms of draft picks, the Bucks are set up nicely. Starting with the 94 draft they have their own pick plus the Cavs pick, two possible very high draft picks. Where the firesale came into play was how the Bucks traded for 1996 draft picks, arguable one of the deepest drafts in all of sim leaguedom. Four 1st round picks in 1996 and I wonder if they are looking for more, mimicking the Celtics in 1991.
My Take: View looks great if you can see past the pile of shit for this current season. 1996 might be a huge offseason for the Bucks, but right now we're still in 1993.
On the Outside Looking In
Philadelphia 76ers ~ 1-4
Not a great start to the season but it's more likely due to Harper being out for most of the first 2 sims. Only win is vs. Blazers and lost to Twolves and Hornets.
Portland Trailblazers ~ 1-7
A lot more was expected out of the Trailblazers to start the season but it's hard to gameplan out the gate with a brand new team. Still, the Blazers didn't have that tough of a sim to warrant just one win. Giving the team more time to figure this out instead of judging based off first impressions.
Not a great start to the season but it's more likely due to Harper being out for most of the first 2 sims. Only win is vs. Blazers and lost to Twolves and Hornets.
Portland Trailblazers ~ 1-7
A lot more was expected out of the Trailblazers to start the season but it's hard to gameplan out the gate with a brand new team. Still, the Blazers didn't have that tough of a sim to warrant just one win. Giving the team more time to figure this out instead of judging based off first impressions.