Post by TrayWithAnA on Feb 14, 2014 12:14:59 GMT -6
1 Month out, and here are my predictions.
Eastern Conference Races
1st Seed - Magic/Pistons/Pacers - So you'll need to read this whole write up before you wonder why I didn't include the fourth team I deemed playoff bound who is only 2.5 back from the Eastern Conference "leading" Magic. Well, this originally said Magic/Central Winner, but I don't think that even matters at this point. The Magic play 9 Lottery-bound teams and only 2 Playoff-bound teams. I took the Bucks out because I just can't see them being 3 games better than the Magic with their much easier remaining schedule. For that matter, I can't see the Pistons or Pacers being better than them, both having much more difficult schedules.
Winner: Magic - 55%, Pistons - 25%, Pacers - 20%
2nd-4th Seed - Pistons/Pacers/Bucks - Pistons have a little padding here going into the final month, but not much. I think you can bank on the Bucks being the 4 seed, not by any fault of their own. Unfortunately they lost their starting SG for two weeks, and because of that, winning the division seems like a tall task. Facing the Pacers without Curry means they are likely to fall to 1-3 against the Pacers and need to be three games better than them in the final month. Tough with that injury. Pacers are only a game back in the loss column and are due a rebound sim. Unfortunately, they have a little more difficult final schedule with a month to play. They play one fewer Lottery teams and two more Playoff teams. I think the Pistons have a slightly stronger chance, but this race is too close to call.
Winner: Pistons - 45%, Pacers - 40%, Bucks - 15%
5th-7th Seed - Bulls/Celtics/Knicks/Nets/Raptors - I see the Knicks continuing their recent success since they were dominant with Robinson and are only this low because he had long stint on the IR. I see them as the 5 seed, and I think Atlantic rival Celtics will probably finish at the 6 seed. Of course this means I think the current 5th place team in the East will fall to the 7th spot, but it should stay close. Nets and Raptors play 8 and 6 playoff teams in their remaining schedule so it may be a little harder for them to move up above the Bulls.
Seedings 5-7: Knicks, Celtics, Bulls
8th Seed - Nets/Raptors/Cavs/Hawks - This is the race for the final seed and based on my predictions up top, these are the final 4 vying for that spot. The Raptors play 8 lottery teams in the final month and hold the 5th easiest schedule (25th SOS overall) over that same time period. Nets (3rd overall), Cavs (7th), and Hawks (9th) may have too tough of a schedule to compete with that.
8th Seed: Raptors
Western Conference Races
1st Seed - Kings/Warriors - Both teams have similar tough schedules ahead. The Kings play the 5th Hardest schedule while the Warriors play the 4th hardest. The Kings play 4 lottery teams and 9 playoff teams while the Warriors play 3 lottery teams and 8 playoff team. As you can see, almost identical. I think where this starts to tip in the Kings favor is that they have the Bucks at home, as opposed to the Warriors at Milwaukee, and then the Mavericks twice. They play their last two games against each other on 4/13 and 4/14. That makes this race too close to call still. I tip my hat slightly to the Kings in this one.
Winner: Kings 52%, Warriors 48%
2nd Seed - Grizzlies/Jazz/Spurs - Grizzlies have too easy of a schedule not to win this with 2 and 3 games advantages in the loss column against the Jazz and Spurs respectively. They are also up 2-1 in the Jazz series and won their Spurs series 3-1. The easiest remaining schedule in the league includes six games against the bottom third of the Western Conference. This one seems like a lock to me. I give the Jazz a little bit of a chance since they have Jordan and host the Grizzlies in their final game of the season.
Winner: Grizzlies 85%, Jazz 15%, Spurs 0%
4th Seed - Lakers - Being maybe a little too far behind the two teams vying for the Pacific and having a bit of a cushion on the entire Midwest and rest of the Pacific, the Lakers should be the 3 seed. Unfortunately, the Midwest has to be awarded the 2 seed. League rules. There isn't a race here for now.
4th Seed - Lakers 99%, Jazz 0.5%, Spurs 0.5%
5th Seed - Jazz/Spurs - This should be a close race. The Jazz are a game better in the loss column, have a 2-0 lead in the series against the Spurs, and they have Jordan. Still, the Spurs have been pretty strong lately and the Jazz have some injuries right now. With the Spurs having the second hardest schedule remaining, I give the nod to the Jazz.
5th Seed - Jazz 51%, Spurs 49%
6th-7th - Spurs/Suns - With a 4 game lead and a 3-1 series win over the Suns this season, Spurs should hold onto the 6th seed. Suns would have needed a much easier schedule to give them enough hope against a 4 game deficit.
Seeding 6-7: Spurs 90%, Suns 10%
8th - Rockets/Clippers - Clippers won the series this year 3-1 and have an easier schedule than the Rockets, but have a 2 game deficit in the loss column. I think this one is leaning towards the Rockets slightly because of Shaq having that 2 game lead.
8th Seed: Rockets - 55%, Clippers - 45%
