Post by Soundwave on Dec 9, 2013 12:34:00 GMT -6
I may not be able to control how my team plays from sim to sim, but I can control the past. So I've strapped on my flux capacitor and cranked that bitch up to 1.21 gigawatts to take a look back at last season and see if any trends emerge.
We all know that Sloe games tend to be high scoring, but I wanted to see how much of a difference it makes to be able to defend rather than just outscore the opponent. I sat down with a printout of last season's team stats and a glass (or four) ofbath salts Cognac and this is what I found........
1. You have to be able to score efficiently to win.
The top 7 teams in points scored/gm made the playoffs last season. But only 7 of the top 10 (70%) made it. And only 50% of the teams in the bottom 10 in points/gm made the playoffs. None of which got out of the 1st round.
But this doesn't tell the whole story. We all know that points per game is very dependent on pace. So I used a more trustworthy stat in Offensive Efficiency. Using this, I concluded......
Looking ahead at this season, 10 of the top 11 teams in O. Eff. would all make the playoffs. Only the 6th place Wolves would be left out. (by .5 games)
2. Defense Does Matter
9 of the top 11 (82%) of the top teams in points allowed made the playoffs. But let's look at the efficiency.......
11 of the top 13 (85%) made the dance. (The 5th place Raptors famously missed out by 1 point. Not a game, a point)
Only 3 of the bottom 10 made it with only one getting out the first round. (The offensively 1st place Bucks)
But only one of the top 5 made the Conference Finals. (Hawks) (The others were 7th, 10th, and 12th)
Looking ahead, 12 of our current 16 projected playoff teams are all in the top 15 in D. Eff. None of the bottom 3, and only the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 26th place teams would make the dance.
3. The Pace Factor
Running may not be the answer. Pace is scattered all over the place. Only 6 of the top 10 but all top 5 teams in pace made it. Only 1 of the top 8 made the Final Four. Our 2 Finalists ranked 18th and 22nd.
4. Rebounding
11 of the top 13 Rebounding % teams made the playoffs. I stress % because while 9 of the top 10 in actual Rebounds made it, the #2 Raptors did not. No one below 21 in % got in.
Offensive %: 7 of top 10
Defensive %: 9 of top 11
5. Turnovers and Steals
Only six of our top 10 in Turnover % made it, while the last place Hawks won the title.
8 of the top 10 in steals made it.
Conclusions:
Efficient Shooting gives you the best chance to make the playoffs.
Do Not give up good shots and your team stands a very good chance. But you still have to score more efficiently.
Rebounding can make the difference in these higher scoring games.
Turnovers or Pace do not matter as much as previously thought. But taking the ball away does.
Final Lesson: If you make your shots and make the opponent miss, you will win. DUH!
I will keep this info available for any questions or quick reference. I will be glad to answer. But my hope here is to start a bigger discussion on the art of winning Sloe.
We all know that Sloe games tend to be high scoring, but I wanted to see how much of a difference it makes to be able to defend rather than just outscore the opponent. I sat down with a printout of last season's team stats and a glass (or four) of
1. You have to be able to score efficiently to win.
The top 7 teams in points scored/gm made the playoffs last season. But only 7 of the top 10 (70%) made it. And only 50% of the teams in the bottom 10 in points/gm made the playoffs. None of which got out of the 1st round.
But this doesn't tell the whole story. We all know that points per game is very dependent on pace. So I used a more trustworthy stat in Offensive Efficiency. Using this, I concluded......
- 9 of the top 10 in O. Eff. made the playoffs. (90%)
3 of the top 5 went to the Conference Finals. ( The Knicks, 12th, were the 4th)
Only 4 of the bottom 10 made the playoffs and none of the bottom 3.
Looking ahead at this season, 10 of the top 11 teams in O. Eff. would all make the playoffs. Only the 6th place Wolves would be left out. (by .5 games)
2. Defense Does Matter
9 of the top 11 (82%) of the top teams in points allowed made the playoffs. But let's look at the efficiency.......
11 of the top 13 (85%) made the dance. (The 5th place Raptors famously missed out by 1 point. Not a game, a point)
Only 3 of the bottom 10 made it with only one getting out the first round. (The offensively 1st place Bucks)
But only one of the top 5 made the Conference Finals. (Hawks) (The others were 7th, 10th, and 12th)
Looking ahead, 12 of our current 16 projected playoff teams are all in the top 15 in D. Eff. None of the bottom 3, and only the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 26th place teams would make the dance.
3. The Pace Factor
Running may not be the answer. Pace is scattered all over the place. Only 6 of the top 10 but all top 5 teams in pace made it. Only 1 of the top 8 made the Final Four. Our 2 Finalists ranked 18th and 22nd.
4. Rebounding
11 of the top 13 Rebounding % teams made the playoffs. I stress % because while 9 of the top 10 in actual Rebounds made it, the #2 Raptors did not. No one below 21 in % got in.
Offensive %: 7 of top 10
Defensive %: 9 of top 11
5. Turnovers and Steals
Only six of our top 10 in Turnover % made it, while the last place Hawks won the title.
8 of the top 10 in steals made it.
Conclusions:
Efficient Shooting gives you the best chance to make the playoffs.
Do Not give up good shots and your team stands a very good chance. But you still have to score more efficiently.
Rebounding can make the difference in these higher scoring games.
Turnovers or Pace do not matter as much as previously thought. But taking the ball away does.
Final Lesson: If you make your shots and make the opponent miss, you will win. DUH!
I will keep this info available for any questions or quick reference. I will be glad to answer. But my hope here is to start a bigger discussion on the art of winning Sloe.
