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Post by TrayWithAnA on Dec 3, 2013 18:54:35 GMT -6
If you're like me and you're holding onto an extra first rounder, you may be watching that team's season intently. Well hell, why not see what type of road they have ahead of them. The following chart is each teams strength of schedule based on their remaining schedule. In researching the strength of schedule formula, I found the BCS formula which not only factors your opponents record but their opponents record. The formula is [(2*opp.win%)+opp.opp.win%] / 3. This formula doesn't apply to what we are doing, but I say Why not? Knowledge is Power. Do you think the Clipps are screwed? Does this mean the Hawks are even more of a shoe-in? Discuss.
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Post by NOLa. on Dec 3, 2013 19:01:17 GMT -6
Great post! I think after this next sim my SOS will go down a bit.
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Post by DarthVegito on Dec 3, 2013 19:04:54 GMT -6
Thank you Tray. Will make it all that much better when I win the MidWest and the Western Conference AGAIN.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2013 19:06:02 GMT -6
It's interesting the worst teams are at the top and i think that's primarily that they don't have to play themselves.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2013 19:06:36 GMT -6
Thank you Tray. Will make it all that much better when I win the MidWest and the Western Conference AGAIN. Shots fired.
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Post by NOLa. on Dec 3, 2013 19:10:02 GMT -6
Wow of the 10 top hardest schedules 9 are West teams.
West > East
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Post by TrayWithAnA on Dec 3, 2013 20:15:47 GMT -6
Note that this is the remainder of the schedule. Will probably update once a week.
I think you're right though. The good and bad teams don't have to play themselves. But what if you're middle of the road. My pistons are in the middle of this list. Does that mean that I should get more wins because I've already played the good teams?
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Post by IamQuailman on Dec 3, 2013 21:34:01 GMT -6
Wow of the 10 top hardest schedules 9 are West teams. West > East Play the Lakers, kings, warriors blazers suns 3-4 times each. Understandably so
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Post by Conroy on Dec 4, 2013 6:52:02 GMT -6
I guess it's good that I'm at the bottom and the rest of the division is in the top 20.
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Post by Inner_GI on Dec 4, 2013 7:58:48 GMT -6
So the best team in the league has the easiest schedule? WTF
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Post by TrayWithAnA on Dec 4, 2013 8:05:03 GMT -6
So the best team in the league has the easiest schedule? WTF This could be because the teams he has to to play 4 times in a season include 5 sub-.500 teams.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2013 8:13:23 GMT -6
Tray,
Can you do a Strength of Schedule of games played as well as a kind of power ranking?
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Post by bowtothebill23 on Dec 4, 2013 8:13:50 GMT -6
So the best team in the league has the easiest schedule? WTF He plays in the east. He doesn't have to play himself. He's already played the lakers twice. Makes sense.
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Post by Inner_GI on Dec 4, 2013 8:19:01 GMT -6
So the best team in the league has the easiest schedule? WTF He plays in the east. He doesn't have to play himself. He's already played the lakers twice. Makes sense. Yes, it makes sense, but it sucks.
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Post by TrayWithAnA on Dec 4, 2013 9:22:37 GMT -6
Tray, Can you do a Strength of Schedule of games played as well as a kind of power ranking? So my thinking is that you either do the games they've played or the ones that remain. Since each division plays virtually the same schedule, doing the whole thing would be pretty much the same thing. I could work on games played SOS.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2013 10:10:48 GMT -6
Tray, Can you do a Strength of Schedule of games played as well as a kind of power ranking? So my thinking is that you either do the games they've played or the ones that remain. Since each division plays virtually the same schedule, doing the whole thing would be pretty much the same thing. I could work on games played SOS. Well i was thinking SOS of games played as a power ranking. And SOS for future schedule for a playoff prediction?
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Post by TrayWithAnA on Dec 4, 2013 10:14:22 GMT -6
I see what you mean. I can work on that
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Post by Inner_GI on Dec 4, 2013 12:16:17 GMT -6
So my thinking is that you either do the games they've played or the ones that remain. Since each division plays virtually the same schedule, doing the whole thing would be pretty much the same thing. I could work on games played SOS. Well i was thinking SOS of games played as a power ranking. And SOS for future schedule for a playoff prediction? The Power ranking would be awesome.
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Post by WigNosy on Dec 4, 2013 12:53:14 GMT -6
I can't put a lot of stock in Strength of Schedule for remaining games at this point in the season... because of mathematical stuff that should probably be noted about SOS.
1. SOS is really only useful in a situation where the slice of schedule you're looking at contains significantly different opponents for each team. This means it's useful (a) in leagues where everyone does not play everyone else - such as football, or (b) for looking at small slices of schedule where opponents differ significantly (e.g., looking at "who've you played" early in a basketball season or "who's left on your plate" late in a season).
2. In a situation where everyone has more or less the same opponents on their schedule (e.g., looking at 3/4 of a basketball season schedule), you'll more or less get a wash when comparing SOS. All of your prospective opponents are playing others of your prospective opponents, which means that if Opponent A gets a win, Opponent B gets a loss. Your strength of schedule will reflect 50% wins and 50% losses. The only deviation from this will be in games that you play, as this gives your opponents a chance to accumulate a win (or a loss) without giving an offsetting loss (or win) to one of your opponents. This means that if you win a lot, you're adding losses to the tally (making your schedule look weaker) but if you lose a lot, you're adding wins to the tally (making your schedule look stronger). Thus, it's not surprising that the league's worst teams appear to have a tough schedule left and the strongest teams appear to have a weak one.
So looking at "remaining schedule" this early in the season is all but useless. To take it to the extreme, imagine looking at SOS for a 28-team league after a single game... you played one team and got either a win or a loss, while the other 26 teams all played each other for a total of 13 wins and 13 losses... your remaining SOS will be either 14-13 (if you lost and gave the team you were playing a win) or 13-14 (if you won and gave the team you were playing a loss).
To show how this works, it might be interesting for someone to track "SOS for games played" AND "SOS for games remaining" across the season. You'll see the season start with a high variation in SOS for games played but almost no variation in SOS for games remaining... but as the season goes along, the SOS for games played will head towards almost no variation across teams, while the SOS for games remaining increases its spread, and probably starts to "tip" into noticeable variations about the midpoint of the season (when teams start finishing season series with opponents and thus teams no longer have schedules full of common opponents).
EDIT: Note that because of the unbalanced Conference Schedule, there will be slight variations in SOS across conferences... but every team in the league has 56 of their 82 games against common opponents (one home and one away versus each of the other 28 teams). That leaves just 26 games for variation (and odds are very good that your 26 other games look approximately like another home and away game versus teams in your conference, so you will see very little difference in SOS for teams from the same conference if you look at a large portion of the season... i.e., all the Western Conference teams might look like they have an SOS of 52-54% while the Eastern Conference teams all look like they have an SOS of 46-48%)
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2013 13:01:22 GMT -6
I can't put a lot of stock in Strength of Schedule for remaining games at this point in the season... because of mathematical stuff that should probably be noted about SOS. 1. SOS is really only useful in a situation where the slice of schedule you're looking at contains significantly different opponents for each team. This means it's useful (a) in leagues where everyone does not play everyone else - such as football, or (b) for looking at small slices of schedule where opponents differ significantly (e.g., looking at "who've you played" early in a basketball season or "who's left on your plate" late in a season). 2. In a situation where everyone has more or less the same opponents on their schedule (e.g., looking at 3/4 of a basketball season schedule), you'll more or less get a wash when comparing SOS. All of your prospective opponents are playing others of your prospective opponents, which means that if Opponent A gets a win, Opponent B gets a loss. Your strength of schedule will reflect 50% wins and 50% losses. The only deviation from this will be in games that you play, as this gives your opponents a chance to accumulate a win (or a loss) without giving an offsetting loss (or win) to one of your opponents. This means that if you win a lot, you're adding losses to the tally (making your schedule look weaker) but if you lose a lot, you're adding wins to the tally (making your schedule look stronger). Thus, it's not surprising that the league's worst teams appear to have a tough schedule left and the strongest teams appear to have a weak one. So looking at "remaining schedule" this early in the season is all but useless. To take it to the extreme, imagine looking at SOS for a 28-team league after a single game... you played one team and got either a win or a loss, while the other 26 teams all played each other for a total of 13 wins and 13 losses... your remaining SOS will be either 14-13 (if you lost and gave the team you were playing a win) or 13-14 (if you won and gave the team you were playing a loss). To show how this works, it might be interesting for someone to track "SOS for games played" AND "SOS for games remaining" across the season. You'll see the season start with a high variation in SOS for games played but almost no variation in SOS for games remaining... but as the season goes along, the SOS for games played will head towards almost no variation across teams, while the SOS for games remaining increases its spread, and probably starts to "tip" into noticeable variations about the midpoint of the season (when teams start finishing season series with opponents and thus teams no longer have schedules full of common opponents).EDIT: Note that because of the unbalanced Conference Schedule, there will be slight variations in SOS across conferences... but every team in the league has 56 of their 82 games against common opponents (one home and one away versus each of the other 28 teams). That leaves just 26 games for variation (and odds are very good that your 26 other games look approximately like another home and away game versus teams in your conference, so you will see very little difference in SOS for teams from the same conference if you look at a large portion of the season... i.e., all the Western Conference teams might look like they have an SOS of 52-54% while the Eastern Conference teams all look like they have an SOS of 46-48%) Already mentioned
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2013 13:05:20 GMT -6
But yeah we get it. It is what it is, it's a fun article to read and see. Let me take my deflated ball, and pet my hairless cat's nuts.
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Post by TrayWithAnA on Dec 4, 2013 13:11:41 GMT -6
I can't put a lot of stock in Strength of Schedule for remaining games at this point in the season... because of mathematical stuff that should probably be noted about SOS. 1. SOS is really only useful in a situation where the slice of schedule you're looking at contains significantly different opponents for each team. This means it's useful (a) in leagues where everyone does not play everyone else - such as football, or (b) for looking at small slices of schedule where opponents differ significantly (e.g., looking at "who've you played" early in a basketball season or "who's left on your plate" late in a season). 2. In a situation where everyone has more or less the same opponents on their schedule (e.g., looking at 3/4 of a basketball season schedule), you'll more or less get a wash when comparing SOS. All of your prospective opponents are playing others of your prospective opponents, which means that if Opponent A gets a win, Opponent B gets a loss. Your strength of schedule will reflect 50% wins and 50% losses. The only deviation from this will be in games that you play, as this gives your opponents a chance to accumulate a win (or a loss) without giving an offsetting loss (or win) to one of your opponents. This means that if you win a lot, you're adding losses to the tally (making your schedule look weaker) but if you lose a lot, you're adding wins to the tally (making your schedule look stronger). Thus, it's not surprising that the league's worst teams appear to have a tough schedule left and the strongest teams appear to have a weak one. So looking at "remaining schedule" this early in the season is all but useless. To take it to the extreme, imagine looking at SOS for a 28-team league after a single game... you played one team and got either a win or a loss, while the other 26 teams all played each other for a total of 13 wins and 13 losses... your remaining SOS will be either 14-13 (if you lost and gave the team you were playing a win) or 13-14 (if you won and gave the team you were playing a loss). To show how this works, it might be interesting for someone to track "SOS for games played" AND "SOS for games remaining" across the season. You'll see the season start with a high variation in SOS for games played but almost no variation in SOS for games remaining... but as the season goes along, the SOS for games played will head towards almost no variation across teams, while the SOS for games remaining increases its spread, and probably starts to "tip" into noticeable variations about the midpoint of the season (when teams start finishing season series with opponents and thus teams no longer have schedules full of common opponents). EDIT: Note that because of the unbalanced Conference Schedule, there will be slight variations in SOS across conferences... but every team in the league has 56 of their 82 games against common opponents (one home and one away versus each of the other 28 teams). That leaves just 26 games for variation (and odds are very good that your 26 other games look approximately like another home and away game versus teams in your conference, so you will see very little difference in SOS for teams from the same conference if you look at a large portion of the season... i.e., all the Western Conference teams might look like they have an SOS of 52-54% while the Eastern Conference teams all look like they have an SOS of 46-48%) I understand what you're saying. It's why the games played may have been more useful here in the first half and games left could have been more useful in the second half. Where I think this differs is that while you have 56 of the same opponents across the whole league, this takes in to account the possibility that I either played the best group of teams twice each or not. If I play the Hawks 4 times a year, the placement of those games would affect this number. (I remember playing the Pacers one season 4 times in the first three sims.) This was meant for a little bit of fun, and I realized when I did it that it meant next to nothing because of the points you listed earlier. It does start the conversation on ways we can grade out 1-29. Those are already being tossed around behind the scenes.
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Post by Conroy on Dec 4, 2013 14:18:09 GMT -6
I understand what you're saying. It's why the games played may have been more useful here in the first half and games left could have been more useful in the second half. Where I think this differs is that while you have 56 of the same opponents across the whole league, this takes in to account the possibility that I either played the best group of teams twice each or not. If I play the Hawks 4 times a year, the placement of those games would affect this number. (I remember playing the Pacers one season 4 times in the first three sims.) This was meant for a little bit of fun, and I realized when I did it that it meant next to nothing because of the points you listed earlier. It does start the conversation on ways we can grade out 1-29. Those are already being tossed around behind the scenes. In a league that prides itself on transparency can we get a little less going on behind the scenes and a little more going on in front of the scenes? Please?
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Post by TrayWithAnA on Dec 4, 2013 14:30:47 GMT -6
I understand what you're saying. It's why the games played may have been more useful here in the first half and games left could have been more useful in the second half. Where I think this differs is that while you have 56 of the same opponents across the whole league, this takes in to account the possibility that I either played the best group of teams twice each or not. If I play the Hawks 4 times a year, the placement of those games would affect this number. (I remember playing the Pacers one season 4 times in the first three sims.) This was meant for a little bit of fun, and I realized when I did it that it meant next to nothing because of the points you listed earlier. It does start the conversation on ways we can grade out 1-29. Those are already being tossed around behind the scenes. In a league that prides itself on transparency can we get a little less going on behind the scenes and a little more going on in front of the scenes? Please? I meant I am working with a few other guys on creating a better metric for this type of stuff. Nothing being held back. Just developing something else to feed my Excel needs. Don't get so sensitive, buddy.
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Post by WigNosy on Dec 4, 2013 14:38:59 GMT -6
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