Post by J2 on Aug 2, 2014 22:37:27 GMT -6
The season may be winding to a close, but the work never truly stops in Sim League. GMs everywhere will soon be preparing for the offseason, scouting draft picks, updating trade blocks...and preparing offers for Free Agency. This will be the second season of Restricted Free Agency, and even though the big names have already inked their contracts, there are still some interesting players and situations out there. So, without further delay, let us look deeper into the RFA class of 1996.
Brent Price
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Analysis: Yellow/Green Brent Price is one of the better bench players in this league, averaging 9.7 ppg in just 22.5 minutes at the time of this writing. A 6'1" combo guard, Price can and has provided scoring and defense off the bench for the past two seasons. At 27, he's entering his prime, and has very good potential (B in JPS, 3PS, HND, PRD, & STL) to become at least a Green/Green within the next two seasons. If that happens, he could be a fringe starter for some teams, capable of providing around 10-12 ppg.
Accept or Decline? The QO will be accepted. The Blazers have been hanging around the Western Conference Playoff picture for a while now, and since they're already going to lose Bryant Stith, retaining Price's bench services will be key to keeping pace in the West, cap space be damned. Another factor is that the Blazers don't have their 1997 1st, meaning that taking a temporary step back to save cap won't be an option. It'll take a risky offer to pry Price away from Kucoach.
Robert Horry
Team: Washington Wizards
Analysis: 25 years old. Blue/Blue. 6'10". RFA. Yeah. The first of the 1996 Holy Trinity (very solid young RFA talents who just might be attainable), Horry's the crown jewel of RFA...or is he? Defensively, he's already very good, and has the potential to become one of the best, with B potential in PSD (66 rating), PRD (68 rating), and STL (64 rating)...his rebounding ratings are disappointing for his size, however. Offensively? He's not bad (65 rated 3PS with B potential isn't too shabby), it's just that he's very underwhelming offensively (has only cracked 10 ppg once despite mainly being a starter for the last 3 seasons) and seems to have problems staying on the floor in spite of minutes given. If he ever improves offensively, look out, as he'll be one of the league's most versatile forwards, but right now, Rob looks like a 6th Man/fringe starter, living proof that though numbers may not lie, colors can.
Accept or Decline? The Wizards are heading into the playoffs at the time of this writing, and thanks to Wesley's eagerness to re-sign with DC, they'll have more than enough cap space to accept the QO and retain Horry. But, there are concerns. First, his cap hold will likely take them out of any further RFA bidding. Second, the Wiz have glaring holes to fill, ones that will be hard to fill if Horry gets the money Blue/Blue 25-year-olds are expected to get. But in order to be successful, one often has to overpay, and there aren't any really big reasons as to why one of the 1996 Holy Trinity wouldn't be retained. The QO will be accepted.
Matt Geiger
Team: Detroit Pistons
Analysis: Geiger, a newcomer into the land of Green/Green, is an interesting case - a solid defensive/rebounding 7' center who has the slight potential to stretch the floor and score from both inside and mid-range. Still young at 26, one could afford to spend next training camp experimenting on his offensive (rather than defensive) potential, which - if successful - could make Geiger a valuable contributor and legit starter. Already averaging 9.9 ppg & 7.8 rpg at the time of this writing, the potential is clearly there for a double-double big man in the future.
Accept or Decline? The QO will be accepted. Just like the Blazers, the Pistons don't own their 1997 1st (but they do own the Blazers'), which means that failure is not an option next season, but unlike the Blazers, the Pistons are near the bottom of the standings, which means that losing young talent is not an option at all. The cap hit could be brutal, but Geiger will remain a Piston no matter what, as even a risky offer will only damage the Pistons for one season. The combination of Laphonso Ellis' wonderful deal and Elie & Jackson's soon-to-be expiring contracts means that any cap hit Tray takes in 1996-97 will be erased for 1997-98.
Mitchell Butler
Team: New York Knicks
Analysis: 25-year-old Mitchell Butler was forced into a starting role for the Hornets this season, but was then traded to the Knicks, where he could return to his proper place on the bench. Think "Brent Price without the scoring," and you'll get Mitchell Butler. As a bench defensive player, he's not too bad. As anything else, he's a risky Yellow/Green prospect who could either develop into a "meh" role player or fade into obscurity. To put it nicely, you don't go hard after guys like him on Day 1.
Accept or Decline? It's not necessary, but I think the QO will be accepted. The Knicks are a bit of a thin squad anyway, don't have any glaring cap issues, won't really have the cap space to make offers, and it's unlikely that anyone will overpay for Mitch, so why not? Accept the cap hold, make your cheap offer, and give yourself a good chance to retain a decent bench player for next season.
Lorenzo Williams
Team: See above, dummy.
Analysis: Dennis Rodman Jr.? That's what comes to mind when looking at Lorenzo. Averaging 6.9 rpg at 24.9 mpg at the time of this writing, this 26-year-old has A potential in ORB (71 rating) & BLK (74 rating) and B potential in DRB (67 rating) & PSD (60 rating). This Yellow/Green has "solid role player" written all over him, and is already a nice bench contributor.
Accept or Decline? Like Mitchell, I doubt it'd be necessary, as few are going to overpay for Lorenzo, but Wig likes his young 'uns. With that in mind, I can only see 3 ways Lorenzo isn't on the Hawks' bench next season:
1. Someone makes a dumb offer
2. Wig's draft goes well enough to where Lorenzo won't really be needed
3. Both of the above
Todd Day
Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Analysis: Day's a solid Green/Green swingman who's been pretty consistent over his 4 seasons, spent mainly with the Spurs. If you give him about 20 mpg, he'll give you about 8 ppg, with a little defense sprinkled in for good measure. If there's one knock against him, it's that he's solidly average, with potential that indicates slight development at best, sharp decline at worst. Yes, you know exactly what you're getting with Day, nothing more, nothing less.
Accept or Decline? The QO will not be accepted on Day, not a chance. Once again, Quail owns two lotto picks, which are gold in this draft. His only real positions of need are at C and SF, one of which is Day's position. It's not unreasonable to assume that he'll have filled both after the draft. Quail also has the cap space to troll GMs like Tray (Geiger), J2 (Horry), 78 (Brown), and Nicholascajun (Murray), so wasting that opportunity by accepting the cap hold on a guy he won't really need isn't likely to happen.
Tracy Murray
Team: Seattle Supersonics
Analysis: Tracy's the second of the 1996 Holy Trinity. If I had to make a comparison, I'd compare Tracy to a young Sean Elliott: Great offensive potential, but OMG LOOK AT THAT COMPLETE LACK OF DEFENSE. Yes, despite being a 24 (!)-year-old Green/Blue 6'7" swingman with C potential in INS (50 rating), B potential in JPS (67 rating), and A potential in both FTS (76 rating) and 3PS (90 rating!), Tracy has one huge Achilles' heel that will no doubt lower his earning potential - subpar defense. Bizarro Robert Horry. The guy's terrible, quite frankly, and with only C potential in PSD (43 rating), PRD (32 rating), and STL (24 rating), trying to improve him will be a tall task. It's very likely that he won't break average on D until he nears the end of his new contract, and that could ring true even with heavy defensive focus during Training Camp. He has starter potential, but he's likely to give up as many points as he scores if made one.
Accept or Decline? Get your checkbooks out, because he's not going to be accepted. Out of all three members of the Holy Trinity, he's the one I'm 100% certain will be wearing a new uniform next season. Why? For starters, the Sonics will be over the cap no matter what next season, and I don't think Nicholascajun wants to add to that total. Also, the Sonics have two guys waiting in the wings who can easily fill the void left by Tracy's departure - 22-year-old SF Lamond Murray and 25-year-old swingman Wesley Person. With their powers combined, they pretty much do what Tracy does now, so there's no drop-off there. But even if there is, the Sonics own their 1997 1st, and will own a Top 3 protected 1997 Jazz 1st. With all that in mind, I find Tracy Murray likely to leave. Case closed, and best wishes to the team who gets him.
PJ Brown
Team: Houston Rockets
Analysis: The final member of the 1996 Holy Trinity (and also the oldest), Brown's a 26-year-old 6'11" Green/Green PF/C with solid defensive potential alongside nice range and scoring ability. Think of him as a slightly more advanced, well-rounded version of Matt Geiger. Athleticism is a concern, as is his rebounding numbers for this season (6.8 rpg in 31.4 mpg as of this writing), but when you're the sidecar to Big Daddy Shaq Diesel, you tend to get out of the way while he does his work down low. With B potential in all the places you want your big man to have it (ORB, DRB, PSD, & BLK), nothing under 61 in those categories, and solid scoring ratings (53 INS, 55 JPS, C potential in both), PJ's definitely a big man to watch out for if he gets his chance to shine.
Accept or Decline? Here's where things get interesting. The Rockets are guaranteed to be over the cap next season, and straddling the cap past that. Accepting the QO gives them a chance to keep PJ, but keeping him will almost certainly squash the Rockets' ability to add anyone else until after 1997, when Hawkins' and Harper's contracts expire. And with Shaw being 30, Harper being 32 (and declining fast), and Hawkins being 29, it looks as if a rebuild should be coming soon - the sooner the better. Will 78 try to keep PJ, pay a monstrous lux tall bill in '96 & '97, and hold off on rebuilding for two seasons, running the risk of an improving PJ/Shaq combo keeping him out of the lotto? I don't think so. The QO won't be accepted...78 might do it out of pride and to give him some more time to think about it, but I think the chances of PJ remaining in Houston are slim.
Popeye Jones
Team: Chicago Bulls
Analysis: Wait, I take it back - this guy's Dennis Rodman Jr. 25 years old with A (!) potential in ORB (84 rating), DRB (65 rating), and PSD (74 rating), and nice athleticism to boot, this Popeye's an independent young man who don't need no spinach. There are some warning signs, however...he's undersized (6'8"), can pass the ball decently (52 PAS, C potential) but can't handle it at all (24 HND, don't ask), kinda/maybe/sorta can score (as of this writing, 9.3 ppg in 30.8 mpg despite 42 INS & 39 JPS), and that's about it! Much like Rodman, if he isn't crashing the boards, he's not really worth the time, but 25-year-old Green/Blues with the sheer rebounding/defensive potential that this guy has don't come around often. Why isn't he one of the Holy Trinity?
Accept or Decline? Here's why he isn't: He ain't a-goin' nowhere. The Bulls have oodles of cap space and not much talent on their roster, which means they'll hold onto Popeye like Olive Oyl. There is literally no reason, even with his issues, for Popeye not to be back in the Red, White, & Black next season.
Well, that's all for tonight. I was going to do a preview of some teams that would have the cap space to go after some of these guys, but I decided against it. Hopefully you enjoyed reading this short piece as much as I enjoyed writing it. Until next time...
Brent Price
Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Analysis: Yellow/Green Brent Price is one of the better bench players in this league, averaging 9.7 ppg in just 22.5 minutes at the time of this writing. A 6'1" combo guard, Price can and has provided scoring and defense off the bench for the past two seasons. At 27, he's entering his prime, and has very good potential (B in JPS, 3PS, HND, PRD, & STL) to become at least a Green/Green within the next two seasons. If that happens, he could be a fringe starter for some teams, capable of providing around 10-12 ppg.
Accept or Decline? The QO will be accepted. The Blazers have been hanging around the Western Conference Playoff picture for a while now, and since they're already going to lose Bryant Stith, retaining Price's bench services will be key to keeping pace in the West, cap space be damned. Another factor is that the Blazers don't have their 1997 1st, meaning that taking a temporary step back to save cap won't be an option. It'll take a risky offer to pry Price away from Kucoach.
Robert Horry
Team: Washington Wizards
Analysis: 25 years old. Blue/Blue. 6'10". RFA. Yeah. The first of the 1996 Holy Trinity (very solid young RFA talents who just might be attainable), Horry's the crown jewel of RFA...or is he? Defensively, he's already very good, and has the potential to become one of the best, with B potential in PSD (66 rating), PRD (68 rating), and STL (64 rating)...his rebounding ratings are disappointing for his size, however. Offensively? He's not bad (65 rated 3PS with B potential isn't too shabby), it's just that he's very underwhelming offensively (has only cracked 10 ppg once despite mainly being a starter for the last 3 seasons) and seems to have problems staying on the floor in spite of minutes given. If he ever improves offensively, look out, as he'll be one of the league's most versatile forwards, but right now, Rob looks like a 6th Man/fringe starter, living proof that though numbers may not lie, colors can.
Accept or Decline? The Wizards are heading into the playoffs at the time of this writing, and thanks to Wesley's eagerness to re-sign with DC, they'll have more than enough cap space to accept the QO and retain Horry. But, there are concerns. First, his cap hold will likely take them out of any further RFA bidding. Second, the Wiz have glaring holes to fill, ones that will be hard to fill if Horry gets the money Blue/Blue 25-year-olds are expected to get. But in order to be successful, one often has to overpay, and there aren't any really big reasons as to why one of the 1996 Holy Trinity wouldn't be retained. The QO will be accepted.
Matt Geiger
Team: Detroit Pistons
Analysis: Geiger, a newcomer into the land of Green/Green, is an interesting case - a solid defensive/rebounding 7' center who has the slight potential to stretch the floor and score from both inside and mid-range. Still young at 26, one could afford to spend next training camp experimenting on his offensive (rather than defensive) potential, which - if successful - could make Geiger a valuable contributor and legit starter. Already averaging 9.9 ppg & 7.8 rpg at the time of this writing, the potential is clearly there for a double-double big man in the future.
Accept or Decline? The QO will be accepted. Just like the Blazers, the Pistons don't own their 1997 1st (but they do own the Blazers'), which means that failure is not an option next season, but unlike the Blazers, the Pistons are near the bottom of the standings, which means that losing young talent is not an option at all. The cap hit could be brutal, but Geiger will remain a Piston no matter what, as even a risky offer will only damage the Pistons for one season. The combination of Laphonso Ellis' wonderful deal and Elie & Jackson's soon-to-be expiring contracts means that any cap hit Tray takes in 1996-97 will be erased for 1997-98.
Mitchell Butler
Team: New York Knicks
Analysis: 25-year-old Mitchell Butler was forced into a starting role for the Hornets this season, but was then traded to the Knicks, where he could return to his proper place on the bench. Think "Brent Price without the scoring," and you'll get Mitchell Butler. As a bench defensive player, he's not too bad. As anything else, he's a risky Yellow/Green prospect who could either develop into a "meh" role player or fade into obscurity. To put it nicely, you don't go hard after guys like him on Day 1.
Accept or Decline? It's not necessary, but I think the QO will be accepted. The Knicks are a bit of a thin squad anyway, don't have any glaring cap issues, won't really have the cap space to make offers, and it's unlikely that anyone will overpay for Mitch, so why not? Accept the cap hold, make your cheap offer, and give yourself a good chance to retain a decent bench player for next season.
Lorenzo Williams
Team: See above, dummy.
Analysis: Dennis Rodman Jr.? That's what comes to mind when looking at Lorenzo. Averaging 6.9 rpg at 24.9 mpg at the time of this writing, this 26-year-old has A potential in ORB (71 rating) & BLK (74 rating) and B potential in DRB (67 rating) & PSD (60 rating). This Yellow/Green has "solid role player" written all over him, and is already a nice bench contributor.
Accept or Decline? Like Mitchell, I doubt it'd be necessary, as few are going to overpay for Lorenzo, but Wig likes his young 'uns. With that in mind, I can only see 3 ways Lorenzo isn't on the Hawks' bench next season:
1. Someone makes a dumb offer
2. Wig's draft goes well enough to where Lorenzo won't really be needed
3. Both of the above
Todd Day
Team: Milwaukee Bucks
Analysis: Day's a solid Green/Green swingman who's been pretty consistent over his 4 seasons, spent mainly with the Spurs. If you give him about 20 mpg, he'll give you about 8 ppg, with a little defense sprinkled in for good measure. If there's one knock against him, it's that he's solidly average, with potential that indicates slight development at best, sharp decline at worst. Yes, you know exactly what you're getting with Day, nothing more, nothing less.
Accept or Decline? The QO will not be accepted on Day, not a chance. Once again, Quail owns two lotto picks, which are gold in this draft. His only real positions of need are at C and SF, one of which is Day's position. It's not unreasonable to assume that he'll have filled both after the draft. Quail also has the cap space to troll GMs like Tray (Geiger), J2 (Horry), 78 (Brown), and Nicholascajun (Murray), so wasting that opportunity by accepting the cap hold on a guy he won't really need isn't likely to happen.
Tracy Murray
Team: Seattle Supersonics
Analysis: Tracy's the second of the 1996 Holy Trinity. If I had to make a comparison, I'd compare Tracy to a young Sean Elliott: Great offensive potential, but OMG LOOK AT THAT COMPLETE LACK OF DEFENSE. Yes, despite being a 24 (!)-year-old Green/Blue 6'7" swingman with C potential in INS (50 rating), B potential in JPS (67 rating), and A potential in both FTS (76 rating) and 3PS (90 rating!), Tracy has one huge Achilles' heel that will no doubt lower his earning potential - subpar defense. Bizarro Robert Horry. The guy's terrible, quite frankly, and with only C potential in PSD (43 rating), PRD (32 rating), and STL (24 rating), trying to improve him will be a tall task. It's very likely that he won't break average on D until he nears the end of his new contract, and that could ring true even with heavy defensive focus during Training Camp. He has starter potential, but he's likely to give up as many points as he scores if made one.
Accept or Decline? Get your checkbooks out, because he's not going to be accepted. Out of all three members of the Holy Trinity, he's the one I'm 100% certain will be wearing a new uniform next season. Why? For starters, the Sonics will be over the cap no matter what next season, and I don't think Nicholascajun wants to add to that total. Also, the Sonics have two guys waiting in the wings who can easily fill the void left by Tracy's departure - 22-year-old SF Lamond Murray and 25-year-old swingman Wesley Person. With their powers combined, they pretty much do what Tracy does now, so there's no drop-off there. But even if there is, the Sonics own their 1997 1st, and will own a Top 3 protected 1997 Jazz 1st. With all that in mind, I find Tracy Murray likely to leave. Case closed, and best wishes to the team who gets him.
PJ Brown
Team: Houston Rockets
Analysis: The final member of the 1996 Holy Trinity (and also the oldest), Brown's a 26-year-old 6'11" Green/Green PF/C with solid defensive potential alongside nice range and scoring ability. Think of him as a slightly more advanced, well-rounded version of Matt Geiger. Athleticism is a concern, as is his rebounding numbers for this season (6.8 rpg in 31.4 mpg as of this writing), but when you're the sidecar to Big Daddy Shaq Diesel, you tend to get out of the way while he does his work down low. With B potential in all the places you want your big man to have it (ORB, DRB, PSD, & BLK), nothing under 61 in those categories, and solid scoring ratings (53 INS, 55 JPS, C potential in both), PJ's definitely a big man to watch out for if he gets his chance to shine.
Accept or Decline? Here's where things get interesting. The Rockets are guaranteed to be over the cap next season, and straddling the cap past that. Accepting the QO gives them a chance to keep PJ, but keeping him will almost certainly squash the Rockets' ability to add anyone else until after 1997, when Hawkins' and Harper's contracts expire. And with Shaw being 30, Harper being 32 (and declining fast), and Hawkins being 29, it looks as if a rebuild should be coming soon - the sooner the better. Will 78 try to keep PJ, pay a monstrous lux tall bill in '96 & '97, and hold off on rebuilding for two seasons, running the risk of an improving PJ/Shaq combo keeping him out of the lotto? I don't think so. The QO won't be accepted...78 might do it out of pride and to give him some more time to think about it, but I think the chances of PJ remaining in Houston are slim.
Popeye Jones
Team: Chicago Bulls
Analysis: Wait, I take it back - this guy's Dennis Rodman Jr. 25 years old with A (!) potential in ORB (84 rating), DRB (65 rating), and PSD (74 rating), and nice athleticism to boot, this Popeye's an independent young man who don't need no spinach. There are some warning signs, however...he's undersized (6'8"), can pass the ball decently (52 PAS, C potential) but can't handle it at all (24 HND, don't ask), kinda/maybe/sorta can score (as of this writing, 9.3 ppg in 30.8 mpg despite 42 INS & 39 JPS), and that's about it! Much like Rodman, if he isn't crashing the boards, he's not really worth the time, but 25-year-old Green/Blues with the sheer rebounding/defensive potential that this guy has don't come around often. Why isn't he one of the Holy Trinity?
Accept or Decline? Here's why he isn't: He ain't a-goin' nowhere. The Bulls have oodles of cap space and not much talent on their roster, which means they'll hold onto Popeye like Olive Oyl. There is literally no reason, even with his issues, for Popeye not to be back in the Red, White, & Black next season.
Well, that's all for tonight. I was going to do a preview of some teams that would have the cap space to go after some of these guys, but I decided against it. Hopefully you enjoyed reading this short piece as much as I enjoyed writing it. Until next time...
