Post by WigNosy on Jun 2, 2014 13:39:12 GMT -6
I'm not going to bother with a mock draft, because there's still way too much shifting of draft position that could go on between now and then (teams records changing and of course the lotto and on top of all of that draft day trades). Instead, I'm going to look at players I think will have some sort of impact - positive or negative - coming out of this draft, and try to figure out what their draft prospects are. Each "tier" is sorted alphabetically by last name.
Franchise Players
PF Kevin Garnett - Barring a huge jump in TC, Garnett will be a borderline starter next season for the team that drafts him. His offense and defense, frankly, aren't that great. But at just 18 years old and with sky-high potential, he has plenty of time to grow and should be a beast two or three years down the road... when he will be at the same age that most rookies are just starting their careers. A mortal lock for the #1 pick.
Yeah, that's it for franchise players. Didn't win the lotto? Try again next year.
Near-Franchise Players
SG Brent Barry - Well-developed SG with good perimeter game, both defensively and offensively. Interior game a bit of a concern, and not blessed with the physical attributes of other members of the draft class. At age 23, quite a bit older than most other players in this tier. Likely to go to a team that already has an inside player or two or that wants to build a strong perimeter defensive team. Could go as high as #4, though 5 to 8 is more likely.
SG Michael Finley - Excellent size for a SG, offensive game very perimeter-oriented, though, so doesn't take advantage like he should. Good physical tools, but lacking on the defensive end. High ceiling, training camp will be huge for him to see if some of the holes in his game can be addressed. Could go as high as #2, though I think #6 or 7 is more likely. Won't fall farther than that.
PF Antonio McDyess - Traditional big man with excellent physical attributes. Free throws could be an issue. Offensive game a bit limited, but already fairly good on the offensive glass. Needs to be on an inside-focused team to take advantage of his offensive strengths. Very young, high ceiling... just hope his sim knees are in better shape than his real ones. Probably a top-5 pick.
C Arvydas Sabonis - Best player on the board right now; exceptional interior defender, can even step outside and hit the three. Problem is, he's 30, so there are concerns about how long he'll be effective. On a bad team, he'd be a Rookie of the Year candidate, but no bad team will take a gamble; he'll go to either an established contender or a team that feels their window is closing. If the Lakers (contender) or Jazz (window closing) don't take him, could fall out of the top ten or even out of the lottery.
SF Jerry Stackhouse - Already has ridiculous physical tools and a decent offensive game. Defense is rather lacking, but on a team where he's the main offensive option, could put up big numbers and mount a run for rookie of the year. At 20 years old, lots of room to grow. Most likely to go to a team that won't mind letting him loose offensively and won't care about the defensive struggles he'll have - in other words, a rebuilding team. Likely to be a top-5 pick. Will contend for Rookie of the Year if given minutes.
PF Rasheed Wallace - Intriguing big man who can already hit the three. Excellent size for a PF. Likely to develop into a great #2 player with no overwhelming strengths - but no glaring weaknesses, either. Very young (20) with a lot of room for growth. Best fit would be on a team that already has their #1 player as he might make a team without a #1 good enough to miss out on high lottery picks. Should be a top-5 pick.
Quality Prospects
PG Travis Best - Decent shooting touch, particularly from three. Handles the ball and defends acceptably for a rookie. Quick and athletic, though not terribly strong. Won't really hurt your team, but won't make it much better either. Projects as a steady career backup. Late lottery pick at best.
SG Pedrag Danilovic - Puts the "Shooting" in Shooting Guard. Shoots the ball well enough, but poor handles, rebounding, and defense make him a very one-dimensional player. It's questionable how much improvement he'll ever see, potential and age (24) aren't great. Projects as a late lottery pick or possible just outside the lotto.
SG Fred Hoiberg - Undersized SG but a decent perimeter defender and has three-point range. Surprisingly good defensive rebounder for his size and position. Looks like he can become a defensive-minded player who won't be a total loss on offense. Might sneak in at the end of the lottery picks, but more likely to go later.
SG Voshon Lenard - Nice offensive touch, can even pass the ball some (but don't ask him to handle the ball). Defense needs a lot of work, and he's pretty much a one-trick pony. A bit undersized for a SG, and physical traits are iffy outside of quickness, which probably means he goes outside the lottery.
C Greg Ostertag - Prototypical defensive Center. Already has the size and strength to bang inside and will block some shots but offense is non-existent and needs to work on individual defense. There's definitely a niche spot for him on a team that doesn't need him for his offense, just a big man clogging the middle, but I'm not sure he warrants a lottery selection. Probably taken just outside the lottery.
PF Joe Smith - Good offensive rebounder, some interior offense, but surprisingly awful defensive rebounder for a PF, and doesn't have great physical attributes. Will probably go to a team that doesn't look past interior offense rating to recognize he's a defensive liability and has no handles or passing - in other words, if he's not shooting, he's hurting your team. Size and offensive game probably keep him in the lottery, but he really should go just outside it.
PG Damon Stoudamire - Shoot-first point guard, but an offensive dynamo with incredible quickness. Could provide instant offense to teams that struggle to score. Needs the ball in his hands a lot to be effective. Defensive liability; probably best used as a bench guard to provide offensive spark. On a team where he was the lone offensive option, could challenge for Rookie of the Year. Very hard to gauge where he'll go in the draft - could be has high as 6 or as low as 13.
SG Bob Sura - Good ballhandler with nice physical tools but offensive and defensive skills still lagging a bit behind. Potential to become a nice combo guard with excellent size. Will need a year or two before he's productive, though. Tools and potential probably keep him in the late lotto picks.
PF Kurt Thomas - Classic PF who looks like he can help a team on the glass immediately. Shot-blocking and interior offense and individual defense are probably a year or two away, and nothing jumps out as allowing him to overwhelm opponents. Looks like he'll have a career as a solid journeyman big at best.
Other notables:
C Thomas Hamilton - The immovable object. Weighs in at 360 pounds and no ability to defend the perimeter, handle the ball, pass, or get steals at all. Perhaps the only guy in the league bigger than Shaq; unfortunately no skills other than eating. Somehow probably gets himself drafted in the first round, probably to a Midwest team worried about Shaq.
PF Alan Henderson - There's an outside shot this guy could be Cedric Ceballos lite; has incredible offensive rebounding numbers and a pretty good leaper. Worth taking a late flyer on.
SF Ed O'Bannon - This guy was the best player on the UCLA team that won the college title this year? Ouch!
C Theo Ratliff - This guy's a bit of a project; shows promise as a shot-blocker and interior defender, but offensive game extremely raw and a horrible rebounder for his position, particularly on the defensive end. A team that takes him will need to stash him on the bench for a couple of seasons before expecting production, which makes him a mid-first-round pick at best.
C Bryant Reeves - Surprisingly proficient offensive touch, offers decent post defense, too. Needs to have a strong rebounder next to him, though.
General Observations
I actually like the depth of big men in the draft; the guards (outside that "near-franchise" tier) aren't nearly as exciting this year.
The most fascinating thing about this draft will be "who takes Arvydas?" This will be probably the only draft where the obvious best player available (right now) is a guy most teams will be very afraid to touch.
Small Forwards continue to be hard to come by. I'm noticing a lot of teams have either a converted PF or converted SG playing at small forward. That trend doesn't look like it's coming to an end this draft.
Franchise Players
PF Kevin Garnett - Barring a huge jump in TC, Garnett will be a borderline starter next season for the team that drafts him. His offense and defense, frankly, aren't that great. But at just 18 years old and with sky-high potential, he has plenty of time to grow and should be a beast two or three years down the road... when he will be at the same age that most rookies are just starting their careers. A mortal lock for the #1 pick.
Yeah, that's it for franchise players. Didn't win the lotto? Try again next year.
Near-Franchise Players
SG Brent Barry - Well-developed SG with good perimeter game, both defensively and offensively. Interior game a bit of a concern, and not blessed with the physical attributes of other members of the draft class. At age 23, quite a bit older than most other players in this tier. Likely to go to a team that already has an inside player or two or that wants to build a strong perimeter defensive team. Could go as high as #4, though 5 to 8 is more likely.
SG Michael Finley - Excellent size for a SG, offensive game very perimeter-oriented, though, so doesn't take advantage like he should. Good physical tools, but lacking on the defensive end. High ceiling, training camp will be huge for him to see if some of the holes in his game can be addressed. Could go as high as #2, though I think #6 or 7 is more likely. Won't fall farther than that.
PF Antonio McDyess - Traditional big man with excellent physical attributes. Free throws could be an issue. Offensive game a bit limited, but already fairly good on the offensive glass. Needs to be on an inside-focused team to take advantage of his offensive strengths. Very young, high ceiling... just hope his sim knees are in better shape than his real ones. Probably a top-5 pick.
C Arvydas Sabonis - Best player on the board right now; exceptional interior defender, can even step outside and hit the three. Problem is, he's 30, so there are concerns about how long he'll be effective. On a bad team, he'd be a Rookie of the Year candidate, but no bad team will take a gamble; he'll go to either an established contender or a team that feels their window is closing. If the Lakers (contender) or Jazz (window closing) don't take him, could fall out of the top ten or even out of the lottery.
SF Jerry Stackhouse - Already has ridiculous physical tools and a decent offensive game. Defense is rather lacking, but on a team where he's the main offensive option, could put up big numbers and mount a run for rookie of the year. At 20 years old, lots of room to grow. Most likely to go to a team that won't mind letting him loose offensively and won't care about the defensive struggles he'll have - in other words, a rebuilding team. Likely to be a top-5 pick. Will contend for Rookie of the Year if given minutes.
PF Rasheed Wallace - Intriguing big man who can already hit the three. Excellent size for a PF. Likely to develop into a great #2 player with no overwhelming strengths - but no glaring weaknesses, either. Very young (20) with a lot of room for growth. Best fit would be on a team that already has their #1 player as he might make a team without a #1 good enough to miss out on high lottery picks. Should be a top-5 pick.
Quality Prospects
PG Travis Best - Decent shooting touch, particularly from three. Handles the ball and defends acceptably for a rookie. Quick and athletic, though not terribly strong. Won't really hurt your team, but won't make it much better either. Projects as a steady career backup. Late lottery pick at best.
SG Pedrag Danilovic - Puts the "Shooting" in Shooting Guard. Shoots the ball well enough, but poor handles, rebounding, and defense make him a very one-dimensional player. It's questionable how much improvement he'll ever see, potential and age (24) aren't great. Projects as a late lottery pick or possible just outside the lotto.
SG Fred Hoiberg - Undersized SG but a decent perimeter defender and has three-point range. Surprisingly good defensive rebounder for his size and position. Looks like he can become a defensive-minded player who won't be a total loss on offense. Might sneak in at the end of the lottery picks, but more likely to go later.
SG Voshon Lenard - Nice offensive touch, can even pass the ball some (but don't ask him to handle the ball). Defense needs a lot of work, and he's pretty much a one-trick pony. A bit undersized for a SG, and physical traits are iffy outside of quickness, which probably means he goes outside the lottery.
C Greg Ostertag - Prototypical defensive Center. Already has the size and strength to bang inside and will block some shots but offense is non-existent and needs to work on individual defense. There's definitely a niche spot for him on a team that doesn't need him for his offense, just a big man clogging the middle, but I'm not sure he warrants a lottery selection. Probably taken just outside the lottery.
PF Joe Smith - Good offensive rebounder, some interior offense, but surprisingly awful defensive rebounder for a PF, and doesn't have great physical attributes. Will probably go to a team that doesn't look past interior offense rating to recognize he's a defensive liability and has no handles or passing - in other words, if he's not shooting, he's hurting your team. Size and offensive game probably keep him in the lottery, but he really should go just outside it.
PG Damon Stoudamire - Shoot-first point guard, but an offensive dynamo with incredible quickness. Could provide instant offense to teams that struggle to score. Needs the ball in his hands a lot to be effective. Defensive liability; probably best used as a bench guard to provide offensive spark. On a team where he was the lone offensive option, could challenge for Rookie of the Year. Very hard to gauge where he'll go in the draft - could be has high as 6 or as low as 13.
SG Bob Sura - Good ballhandler with nice physical tools but offensive and defensive skills still lagging a bit behind. Potential to become a nice combo guard with excellent size. Will need a year or two before he's productive, though. Tools and potential probably keep him in the late lotto picks.
PF Kurt Thomas - Classic PF who looks like he can help a team on the glass immediately. Shot-blocking and interior offense and individual defense are probably a year or two away, and nothing jumps out as allowing him to overwhelm opponents. Looks like he'll have a career as a solid journeyman big at best.
Other notables:
C Thomas Hamilton - The immovable object. Weighs in at 360 pounds and no ability to defend the perimeter, handle the ball, pass, or get steals at all. Perhaps the only guy in the league bigger than Shaq; unfortunately no skills other than eating. Somehow probably gets himself drafted in the first round, probably to a Midwest team worried about Shaq.
PF Alan Henderson - There's an outside shot this guy could be Cedric Ceballos lite; has incredible offensive rebounding numbers and a pretty good leaper. Worth taking a late flyer on.
SF Ed O'Bannon - This guy was the best player on the UCLA team that won the college title this year? Ouch!
C Theo Ratliff - This guy's a bit of a project; shows promise as a shot-blocker and interior defender, but offensive game extremely raw and a horrible rebounder for his position, particularly on the defensive end. A team that takes him will need to stash him on the bench for a couple of seasons before expecting production, which makes him a mid-first-round pick at best.
C Bryant Reeves - Surprisingly proficient offensive touch, offers decent post defense, too. Needs to have a strong rebounder next to him, though.
General Observations
I actually like the depth of big men in the draft; the guards (outside that "near-franchise" tier) aren't nearly as exciting this year.
The most fascinating thing about this draft will be "who takes Arvydas?" This will be probably the only draft where the obvious best player available (right now) is a guy most teams will be very afraid to touch.
Small Forwards continue to be hard to come by. I'm noticing a lot of teams have either a converted PF or converted SG playing at small forward. That trend doesn't look like it's coming to an end this draft.
